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Demand expectations are falling as evidence of a slowdown in the global industrial cycle accumulates - with China leading the way.

Oil prices are dropping.

Crude oil benchmarks, USD per barrel

New York Federal Reserve Consumer Expectations Survey: "Inflation expectations declined to 4.1 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon, its lowest reading since May 2021, but increased slightly to 3.0 percent and 2.7 percent at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons".

Consumer inflation expectations are coming down.

Google search volume for "inflation" and median one-year ahead expected inflation rate, %

Inflation breakevens - which measure the difference between Treasury yields and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) - are coming down, and ten-year yields are stabilizing well below their shorter-term counterparts.

Market expectations remain firmly anchored.

10-year Treasury and Treasury Inflation Protected Security yields, %

With gas prices rolling over, headline inflation is coming down - and negative base effects are likely to hit rents in coming months.

Inflation risks might be skewed to the downside.

Consumer price indices, %

Every major central bank - other than the Bank of Japan - is expected to begin cutting rates within a year.

Markets still think policy will loosen.

Overnight index swap-implied policy rate, %

The value of global financial assets - proxied here through regional equity capitalization, but likely echoed in real estate prices - has rebounded from last year's lows. This may be reinforcing post-pandemic wealth effects, spurring higher levels of household spending.

Asset prices are climbing once again.

Equity market capitalization, billions USD

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee are likely to emphasize a "higher for longer" message - reflecting their own views, and their communication goals.

The "dot plot" could shift outward.

Midpoint of target range for the Federal Funds Rate, Statement of Economic Projections %

Moves in the dollar remain closely linked with changes in volatility expectations.

The dollar is still smiling.

Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE)Treasury volatility index and DXY dollar index

Mexico is grabbing market share from China - but final assembly isn't the whole picture.

Mexico is benefitting from "reshoring" flows.

US goods imports, millions USD

With other central banks in the Americas expected to keep rates higher for longer, relative carry is shifting south.

Rate differentials are expected to narrow.

US goods imports, millions USD

The relationship between US equity volatility and the peso remains robust, suggesting that a US shock could force a sharp unwind in the exchange rate.

But volatility shifts remain far more important.

US goods imports, millions USD
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