• Consolidation. Modest moves across most markets. USD index remains heavy with EUR pushing higher. AUD hovering near top of its range.• Macro pulse. US manufacturing ISM shows momentum still sluggish. US jobs report the main data focal point later this week.• AU data. Retail sales & building approvals released today. After a subdued start to the year will retail spending turn the corner? Global...

• Pressure points. US equities hit another record high, while the USD remains under pressure. AUD has risen to the top of its multi-month range.• USD trends. USD index ~10.5% below where it started the year. Worst performance over the first half of a year since the early-70s.• Macro events. Eurozone CPI & ECB conference in focus tonight. Various US jobs indicators due over next few days. US ISM...

• Holding on. Pockets of volatility on Friday but on net US equities & bond yields rose. EUR continues to climb. AUD drifted a little lower.• US macro. Consumer spending fell. Some signs of tariff impacts on US inflation. Has the uncertainty flowed through to the US jobs market?• Event Radar. China PMIs today. Annual ECB conference & EZ inflation due this week. US jobs report scheduled (Thurs...

The peace and quiet was nice, while it lasted. The Canadian dollar is down almost 60 basis points after President Donald Trump said he was ending all trade negotiations with the country, while threatening to impose new tariffs within the next week. In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said, “We have just been informed that Canada, a very difficult Country to TRADE with, including the fact...

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure came in slightly hotter than expected in May—lending support to the central bank’s cautious approach—but personal spending levels missed forecasts, pointing to a more profound slowdown ahead. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.2 percent from the prior month,...

• US trends. Outlook for US rate cuts supported sentiment & exerted more pressure on the USD. AUD at the top of its multi-month range.• Macro forces. Patchy US growth & signs the labour market is loosening. Reports also indicate Pres. Trump may name the next Fed Chair early.• USD downtrend. Various factors continue to move against the USD. There will be bumps along the way but we see the USD...

The dollar is trading near a three-year low and Treasury yields are down across the curve after a report suggested that Donald Trump could appoint the next Federal Reserve chair early in an attempt to push interest rates in a more favourable direction. According to the Wall Street Journal, frustration with the central bank’s easing trajectory has led the president to consider naming a successor to...

• Mixed fortunes. US equities & bonds consolidated, while USD remains on backfoot. EUR & GBP near cyclical highs. AUD & NZD a little firmer.• USD trends. Fundamental forces continue to undermine the USD. It won’t be a straight line but we think these trends may continue for a while yet.• AU CPI. Monthly inflation slowed more than forecast. RBA likely to cut interest rates again in...

• Peacemaker. De-escalation of Israel/Iran conflict boosted sentiment. Equities rose, oil declined. This dragged down the USD. AUD & NZD higher.• Fed comments. Fed Chair Powell also spoke. Noted there is no rush to act, but kept door open to more policy easing if inflation remains contained.• AU CPI. CPI indicator due today. More info on services prices this month. Will the CPI show sticky core...

Oil prices are down dramatically, shares are gaining, and the dollar is retreating on signs that the latest round of hostilities in the Middle East is drawing to a close. A truce between Israel and Iran, announced by US President Donald Trump late last night, was temporarily interrupted by accusations of missile launches from both sides, but now appears to be holding. Crude benchmarks plunged earlier...