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EUR

AUD struggles

• Ongoing concerns. Banking issues remain in the US, while various indicators like the copper price point to a sharp slowdown in global growth.• AUD under pressure. Global backdrop compounded by softer Q1 Australian CPI. We expect the RBA to hold steady again at next week’s meeting.• US data in focus. US Q1 GDP released tonight, while the Employment Cost Index and PCE deflator are due tomorrow. Sentiment across markets continues to have a negative vibe. Banking sector concerns and growth worries remain front of mind. Outside of the US tech-focused NASDAQ, which was boosted by robust earnings from a...

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Markets Lick Wounds After Bank-Related Selloff

With First Republic Bank shares recovering ground even as a rescue looks increasingly plausible, regional lender indices are climbing, and yesterday’s slow-motion flight to safety is unwinding across the financial markets. With renewed troubles in the banking sector seen reducing the Federal Reserve’s room for manoeuvre, yields are under pressure across the front end of the curve, and the dollar is falling back after posting its biggest daily gain since early March. The pound and euro are steamrolling higher on improved rate differentials, while the credit condition-sensitive Canadian dollar is struggling to lift itself off the mat after yesterday’s bruising defeat....

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Inflation breathing space for the RBA

On net, the Q1 Australian CPI underwhelmed expectations, with the data confirming that inflation, which is the rate of change in consumer prices, ‘peaked’ at the end of 2022. In terms of the numbers, headline inflation stepped down from 7.8%pa to 7.0%pa. While this was slightly less than what the consensus of economists was factoring in, it was below the RBA’s February 2023 projections (mkt 6.9%pa, RBA ~7.3%pa). At the same time, trimmed mean (the RBA’s preferred core inflation gauge) eased a bit more than anticipated, slowing from 6.9%pa to 6.6%pa (mkt and RBA ~6.7%pa). A closer look at the...

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Growth & banking concerns return

• Negative vibes. Growth concerns and renewed banking sector worries weighed on risk sentiment. Equities, bond yields, and commodities lower.• AUD under pressure. The backdrop has supported the USD and JPY, and helped push AUD/USD down to within 1% of its 2023 low.• CPI in focus. Australia Q1 CPI released today. Annual inflation predicted to slow. This is the last major local release ahead of the 2 May RBA meeting. Risk sentiment soured overnight as growth concerns and renewed banking sector nerves weighed on investors’ minds. Banking stocks were dragged lower, firstly in Europe by some disappointing results, and then...

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Dollar Advances Amid Renewed Banking Worries

Renewed concerns over the health of the global banking sector are driving investors toward safe havens this morning, lifting the dollar against its major counterparts. North American equity futures are setting up for a weaker open, Treasury yields are down, and currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollars are underperforming relative to the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Financial sector stocks began to weaken last night after First Republic Bank said it had lost more than $100 billion in deposits during the first quarter, forcing it to cut staff and reduce lending activity. Selling continued in the European session when UBS and...

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