CNY

As hopes for a policy “pivot” fade, US Treasury yields are continuing their inexorable ascent this morning. Equity markets look set to extend yesterday’s losses, commodities are coming under renewed pressure, and currency traders are buying the dollar once again. Terminal rate expectations are still rising. In a speech yesterday, the Philadelphia Fed’s Patrick Harker said “Given our frankly disappointing lack of progress on curtailing inflation, I expect we will be well above 4 percent by the end of the year,” and warned tightening would likely continue into 2023, saying “Sometime next year, we are going to stop hiking rates”....

The dollar bull is looking tired, but is not ready yet to keel over. With idiosyncratic issues hitting the yen and yuan, losses in the trade-weighted greenback still look relatively modest, but an improvement in global risk appetite is helping the pound, euro, and high-beta currencies inch higher ahead of the North American equity market open—and weakness could become more entrenched as signs of a maturing rate cycle begin to emerge against a sparse data backdrop. The pound is trading within a consolidative range, with yesterday’s wholesale reversal of the government’s fiscal plans continuing to offer support – even as...