Chartbook: March 14

Treasury markets are extending their losses this morning on worries that funding strains could reach unsustainable levels after the House of Representatives passed President Donald Trump’s broad-reaching tax-cut bill. By a 215-to-214 margin, the lower chamber passed what Trump has called his “one, big, beautiful” bill early this morning, with two Republicans and all Democrats voting against it....

The ‘Sell America’ trade is back in play this morning. The dollar is unwinding last week’s gains and is down against all of its major counterparts, US equity markets are setting up for a bruising open, and the Treasury curve is bear steepening*, with 30-year yields pushing back above the 5-percent threshold on growing concerns surrounding Washington’s fiscal trajectory. Oil prices are up on an unsubstantiated...

The dollar is retreating as optimism surrounding the weekend’s trade deal continues to diminish and US consumers show signs of exhaustion, leaving investors to contemplate longer-term risks to the American economy. Treasury yields are moving higher, equity indices are indicating a modest softening in today’s session, and most majors – excluding the Canadian and Australian dollars – are...

The dollar is extending its losses this morning, following reports that the United States and South Korea held talks on Seoul’s foreign exchange policies in early May – a development that may signal a shift in Washington’s focus from trade imbalances to currency concerns. On a trade-weighted basis, the greenback has fallen more than a full percentage point against its peers in the euro area, United...

Euphoria surrounding the weekend’s US-China tariff climbdown is fading this morning, and the dollar is retreating in the face of a third consecutive monthly undershoot in inflation data. Treasury yields are pushing lower, equity futures are pointing slightly higher, and safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen are back to outperforming their risk-sensitive brethren. Consumer price...

A palpable sense of relief is washing over global markets after the US and China agreed to temporarily cut most tariffs on each other’s goods ahead of further trade negotiations. North American equity futures are setting up for a circa-3-percent rally at the open, Treasury yields are inching higher, and both global oil benchmarks are climbing. In currency markets, the dollar is trading near a one-month...

• Positive talks. Constructive talks between US/China over the weekend. But a deal may take some time. This may temper the markets excitement.• Market trends. Equity futures have opened positively. USD index a little firmer. AUD & NZD ticked up thanks to relative strength on cross-rates.• Event Radar. In AU the monthly jobs report is out (Thurs). In the US, CPI, retail sales, import prices due...

• Tariff news. US/UK trade deal ‘framework’ unveiled. Baseline 10% tariff remains. Many details still to be worked out. US/China talks this weekend.• Upbeat markets. Equities rose as did bond yields. USD claws back more lost ground. NZD & AUD drift lower. AUD outperforms NZD, JPY & EUR.• Upcoming events. China trade data released today. Several US Fed members also due to speak....

Stock futures are up and the dollar is trading on a stronger footing after President Donald Trump said he would announce a “full and comprehensive” trade agreement with the United Kingdom later this morning, raising hopes that a broader ratcheting down in tensions could avert lasting damage to the American and global economies. The Canadian dollar and Japanese yen are trading lower, while the euro...

• Mixed markets. US equities end a bit higher overnight, while bond yields eased & the USD rose. AUD & NZD gave back ground over the past 24hrs.• Macro news. US/China reportedly set to hold trade talks. US Fed ‘cautious’. No change in rates. There is a lot of uncertainty about the outlook.• Market trends. After a strong run AUD & NZD may ease back further near-term. This reflects...