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CAD

Market Briefing: Goldilocks Flees as Central Bank Bears Return Home

Markets are extending losses after a protracted August selloff. Hopes for a “soft landing” are fading as central bankers systematically lift terminal rate forecasts and rhetorically demolish odds on a 2023 policy pivot – pushing monetary policy expectations firmly into economically-restrictive territory. Ten-year yields are back at early-June levels, and the two-year Treasury briefly hit 3.5 percent for the first time since 2007 yesterday. Equity futures are down, energy commodities are dropping, and the dollar is grinding higher against its major rivals. The Japanese yen is knocking on levels not seen since 1998 as rising US yields diminish its attractiveness...

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Market Wire: Canadian Dollar Tumbles as Economy Hits a Brick Wall

The Canadian economy expanded at a much slower-than-expected pace in the second quarter, and began to shrink as higher interest rates hit the housing market and weakened consumer demand last month. Numbers released by Statistics Canada this morning show a 3.3 percent quarter-over-quarter expansion in real gross domestic product, up from a revised 3.1 percent in the first three months of the year. In the second quarter, businesses accumulated inventories aggressively on the back of strong demand, and investment in fixed assets grew at a 14 percent annualized pace, with the oil and gas sector becoming a relative oasis of...

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Market Briefing: Global Selloff Continues, Driving Dollar Higher

A terrible, horrible, no good, very bad summer in markets is coming to an ignominious end. The dollar is nearing its mid-July peak and Treasury yields are climbing after three consecutive days of selling contrived to crush a mid-August rally on global stock bourses. Evidence of an economic slowdown is dissipating, fast. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said yesterday there were 11.2 million unfilled jobs in the US last month, amounting to two openings for each unemployed person. The Conference Board reported a sharp improvement in consumer confidence, with households saying they plan to buy more big-ticket items in the...

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Market Briefing: Dollar Slips as Cross-Asset Selling Pressure Subsides

Futures are up and yields on two- and ten-year Treasuries are easing, raising hopes of a market reversal after two days of bruising losses. The dollar is weaker, down roughly 0.3 percent on a trade-weighted basis, signalling an end to a safe haven rally sparked by Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s aggressively-hawkish speech on Friday. The euro is lifting itself off the floor on positive developments in power markets. Benchmark electricity and natural gas contracts dropped again today as European Union officials mooted a plan to intervene in markets, instituting price caps across the energy value chain. Prices plunged yesterday after...

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Market Briefing: Dollar Bulls Start Feeling A Little Hawkward

The greenback is retreating as bullish dollar sentiment softens ahead of tomorrow’s central bank meeting in Jackson Hole. Commodity-linked and high-beta currencies are climbing on the prospect of more stimulus from China, and the euro and pound are inching up on a broader sense of optimism – even as benchmark European energy prices break new records. Mr. Powell is expected to outline a policy path that takes rates into restrictive territory and keeps them there as the central bank responds to post-pandemic shifts in the global economy. In keeping with the academic nature of the conference, he is likely to...

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