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AUD

05 Jun 2023

A matter of when, not if the RBA moves again

• US labour market. Another punchy US payrolls report. US yields rose, as did the USD. Broader risk sentiment remains positive.• Limited offshore data. Global event calendar is limited this week. Over the weekend Saudi Arabia announced a cut to its oil production.• RBA in focus. Will the RBA deliver another hike this week? Markets factoring in a ~40% chance. Given pricing, there could be an asymmetric AUD reaction. Risk sentiment remained positive at the end of last week. Equities added to recent gains with the US S&P500 rising by another ~1.5%. The S&P500 is now at its highest level...

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02 Jun 2023

The RBA has more work to do

Since kicking its tightening cycle off in May 2022, the RBA has raised the cash rate by a cumulative 375bps. This has been the most abrupt rate hiking cycle since at least the 1980s, but there looks to be more work to do. Recent information is likely to force the RBA’s hand, and we expect another 50bps worth of rate hikes over coming months. This would take the cash rate from 3.85% to 4.35%, a high since late-2011, however higher household indebtedness means this level of rates should pack a far bigger punch than it used to. The upcoming 6...

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01 Jun 2023

False dawn?

• Optimistic markets. Sentiment improves, as a ‘skip’ by the Fed at the June meeting is factored in. Equities higher, bond yields & USD a bit lower.• US labour data. AUD has been boosted by the improved risk appetite. US labour market report released tonight. This could see the USD bounce back.• Wage decision. Ahead of the US data, the minimum/award wage decision is handed down this morning. This could influence RBA expectations & the AUD. The new month has started on positive footing with risk sentiment improving. But, from our perspective, the underlying data pulse and rationale given for...

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31 May 2023

Global growth concerns

• Growth worries. Weaker than expected China PMIs added to global growth concerns. This has dampened risk sentiment. AUD touched a new ~6-month low.• AU CPI. Inflation indicator re-accelerated more than expected. Data bolsters the case for another RBA hike. Tomorrow’s minimum/award wage decision is important.• USD firm. The USD remains near its recent highs. US ISM manufacturing survey released tonight, with non-farm payrolls due on Friday. Another negative night for risk sentiment with more signs the world economic downturn is gathering pace coming through. Across equities, the EuroStoxx50 fell 1.7% and the US S&P500 was down 0.6%. This followed...

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30 May 2023

Will the China PMIs underwhelm?

• Shaky sentiment. US debt ceiling yet to be fully put to bed. US & European confidence weakened, a sign the global downturn is gathering pace.• Currency concerns. JPY weakness has seen officials fire a shot across the bow of markets. A lower currency makes the inflation fight harder.• AUD events. Today, RBA Governor Lowe speaks, the monthly CPI indicator is released, and the China PMIs are due. Some negative vibes across markets as the US and UK returned to work after their long weekend. The US debt ceiling has yet to be fully put to bed. While the in-principle...

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