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AUD

17 Aug 2023

Australian labour market turning point?

After a few surprisingly solid months the latest Australian labour force lottery came in weaker than expected and this has added to the downward pressure on the AUD (now ~$0.6390). In terms of the numbers employment fell by 14,600 in July, with full-time jobs declining (-24,200) after a couple of robust results. This is only the 3rd fall in employment in the past 21-months and on net the Australian economy has still added ~387,000 jobs over the past year, but nevertheless when it comes to the AUD as is often the case “when it rains it pours”. With the participation...

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16 Aug 2023

Negative vibes

• Wall of worry. China worries, sticky UK inflation & a hawkish tone in the Fed minutes weighed on risk sentiment, pushed up US yields & supported the USD.• AUD pressure. The backdrop has exerted more pressure on the AUD. The AUD is in rarefied air. Since 2015 AUD/USD has only been lower in ~2% of trading days.• AU jobs. July labour force report released today. The labour market is a lagging indicator. Consensus is looking for unemployment to tick up slightly to 3.6%. Familiar themes have continued to drive markets. On the one hand concerns about the state of...

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16 Aug 2023

Cross-Check: AUD/NZD – Stay the course

As was widely expected the RBNZ kept its Official Cash Rate at 5.5% once again at today’s meeting. After moving early and going harder than its peers the RBNZ has now held rates steady for two straight meetings. The RBNZ delivered a substantial 525bps worth of rate hikes between October 2021 and May 2023 and the negative economic effects of these moves are starting to manifest. We expect these negative trends to continue as the cashflow hit on the NZ household sector intensifies and slowdown in other interest rate sensitive sectors like housing/construction spills over into the broader economy and...

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15 Aug 2023

Under pressure

• Mixed signals. Weak China data & positive surprises in US retail sales, Canadian inflation, & UK wages has rattled market nerves.• Negative vibes. The deluge of data has seen US/European bond yields rise & equity markets fall. USD remains firm. AUD touched another 2023 low.• Upcoming events. No change expected from the RBNZ today. UK CPI, US housing & production data, & the FOMC meeting minutes also due. It has been a busy 24hrs with markets digesting a deluge of data. There were mostly positive surprises with activity and/or inflation metrics generally coming in hotter than expected, though China...

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14 Aug 2023

China concerns

• Choppy markets. Developments in China weighed on risk sentiment yesterday, but things settled down overnight. US equities & bond yields higher.• Stronger USD. Higher US yields & China-related nerves pushed the USD to year-to-date highs against the CNH, JPY, SGD, NZD, & AUD.• Data focus. RBA meeting minutes, Q2 AU wages, China activity data batch, UK labour stats, & US retail sales due today. It has been a choppy start to the week for markets. Negative sentiment around developments in China weighed on sentiment during yesterday’s Asian session with investors appearing somewhat concerned about potential fallout from troubles in...

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