AUD

• Jackson Hole. Chair Powell didn’t deviate much from the script. Fed prepared to tighten further if needed, & will hold rates at a “restrictive level” for some time.• Market swings. A bit of volatility in markets, but with a ‘higher for longer’ view priced in equities reversed course. This gave the AUD a bit of support.• Event risks. AU retail sales (today), the monthly CPI (Weds), China PMIs (Thurs), & US jobs report (Fri) are in focus this week. Markets endured a burst of volatility on Friday as US Fed Chair Powell delivered his much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech. In...

• Mixed signals. European equities rose, but US markets were a bit more cautious. Long-end bond yields eased. A softer EUR supported the USD Index.• AUD base? The consolidation in USD/CNH & firmer base metal prices helped the AUD tick up slightly. Offshore forces will drive the AUD near-term.• Event radar. European/US PMIs (today), trends in China, & speeches by Fed Chair Powell & ECB President Lagarde later this week are in focus. A mixed performance across markets with news flow limited. Bond moves remain in focus. Time will tell but from our perspective there are some tentative signs things...

• Calmer markets. US bond yields, the S&P500, & the USD consolidated on Friday, though underlying risk sentiment still looks somewhat fragile.• Global events. European/US PMIs (Weds), week ending speeches by Fed Chair Powell & ECB President Lagarde, & China developments in focus this week.• AUD consolidating. AUD treading water near its 2023 lows. There are no local events scheduled this week. AUD will be driven by offshore news. After a busy few sessions markets consolidated on Friday with little new news coming through to move the needle or alter the fragile state of risk sentiment. The US S&P500 was...

• Bond moves. Yields have continued to rise. The US 10-yr is at its highest since late-2007. This has exerted more pressure on equities. USD remains firm.• CNY focus. Trends in China & CNY remain in focus. Policymakers in China appear to be becoming uncomfortable with the CNY weakness.• AU jobs. Labour market data undershot expectations. Unemployment rose in July, extending the AUD weakness. But is the AUD starting to find a base? Developments in bond markets and China remain front of mind. Against a backdrop of light news and economic dataflow bond yields have risen further. Concerns that rates...