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AUD

03 Sep 2023

USD volatility

• US data. Payrolls were a little stronger than expected, but greater labour supply pushed up unemployment. Manufacturing ISM a bit better than anticipated.• Market volatility. US yields & the USD were whipped around by the US data. AUD spiked initially, but then reversed course as the USD rebounded.• Event radar. Locally, the RBA meeting (Tues), GDP (Weds) & speech by Gov. Lowe (Thurs) are due. Offshore, China trade data & US services ISM are in focus. Markets were whipped around by the US economic data on Friday night with the latest jobs report in the spotlight. The data kept...

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31 Aug 2023

US payrolls in focus

• Mixed markets. The USD clawed back ground against the softer EUR & GBP. AUD/USD held up with AUD/EUR and AUD/GBP rising.• China pulse. Forward components point to a pick up in the manufacturing PMI. Authorities also continue to pull on policy support levers.• US payrolls. US labour market in focus tonight. We think there could be an uneven reaction with a downside surprise likely to generate a larger (negative) jolt on the USD. Markets consolidated overnight with the economic data generally inline with expectations, and with participants having one-eye on tonight’s US labour market report (10:30pm AEST). Equities drifted...

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30 Aug 2023

Softer US data run continues

• Macro divergence. Regional Eurozone inflation positively surprised, while US GDP & ADP employment undershot forecasts. This pushed up the EUR.• AUD volatility. AUD spiked to a ~2-week high overnight before easing back. USD & China trends remain more influential than the local data.• AU inflation. Headline inflation slowed to 4.9%pa. But this was due to volatile items. Higher petrol prices point to a re-acceleration next month. Mixed fortunes across US and European markets overnight, inline with the divergence in the incoming data. European equities slipped back (EuroStoxx50 -0.3%) and bond yields rose (German rates increased ~3bps across the yield...

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29 Aug 2023

Markets Jolted

• Softer US data. US consumer confidence & the JOLTS report came in weaker than expected. This weighed on US bond yields & the USD.• US focus. US labour market trends will remain in the spotlight with ADP employment, jobless claims, & non-farm payrolls due over coming days.• AU inflation. Monthly CPI indicator released today. It is an incomplete series, particularly so early in the quarter. The data may generate intra-day AUD volatility. Downside surprises in the US economic data released overnight has generated a meaningful market reaction with equities higher (S&P500 +1.5%), bond yields lower (US 2yr yield -11bps,...

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28 Aug 2023

US labour market trends in focus

• Equities higher. Yesterday’s lift in Asian equities flowed through to other markets. The S&P500 rose, while US bond yields eased & the USD consolidated.• AU retail. Australian retail sales exceeded expectations, with spending related to the women’s World Cup supportive. AUD a bit firmer.• US data in focus. There is a string of US labour market releases over the next few days. Will the US’ relative economic strength continue? At the start of a week jam-packed with important economic data, particularly in the US, equities have risen over the past 24hrs while US bond yields have eased, and the...

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