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AUD

21 Sep 2023

Fed out-hawks markets – for now

The Federal Reserve turned remarkably optimistic yesterday. Growth forecasts were doubled for this year and raised by more than a third for 2024, projections for the unemployment rate were cut from 4.5 percent to 4.1 over the next two years, and core inflation was still seen falling below 3 percent within a year.  Markets turned more cautious. Odds on a rate hike at the end of this year inched higher and the number of cuts expected in 2024 dropped from four to three. Treasury yields jumped across most of the curve and equity indices tumbled, pushing the dollar higher against...

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20 Sep 2023

Fed ‘hawkish hold’

• Fed volatility. Fed delivered a ‘hawkish hold’. No policy change, but the projected 2024 easing cycle was pared back. US yields & USD rebounded.• Higher for longer. Markets already look to be factoring in a ‘higher for longer’ view. Interest rate pricing remains above the Fed’s updated dots.• AUD round trip. A bit of volatility, but on net the AUD is little changed. AUD has picked up against GBP ahead of tonight’s BoE meeting. Markets endured some volatility overnight with moves in the lead up to the US Fed meeting reversing after the fact. Heading into the announcement, US...

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20 Sep 2023

Compromising positions

Ahead of this afternoon’s Federal Reserve meeting, we note that speculators have sharply reduced short positions against the dollar in the last month, with the capitulation coming after a series of stronger-than-expected data releases widened expected performance gaps between the United States and the rest of the global economy. Friday’s numbers from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed the net dollar position on the verge of flipping into bullish territory, with long trades on the euro tumbling sharply relative to levels earlier in the year. The net non-commercial futures position on the dollar against the G10 currencies plus the Mexican...

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19 Sep 2023

US Fed in focus

• Some jitters. Rising oil prices & higher Canadian inflation boosted bond yields. Equities were flat. The USD consolidated & AUD ticked up.• US Fed. No policy change is anticipated tomorrow. Focus will be on the Fed’s guidance & forecasts. Markets are already pricing a ‘higher for longer’ view.• Event radar. In addition to the US Fed over the next few days UK CPI (today) is released & the BoE meets (tomorrow). The BoJ meeting is on Friday. A few jitters across markets overnight ahead of tomorrows US Fed decision and press conference (4am and 4:30am AEST). Equities were flat...

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18 Sep 2023

Waiting game

• Quiet markets. US equities flat, bond yields mixed. AUD consolidates. Markets in a holding pattern ahead of this weeks offshore central bank meetings.• ECB signals. EUR a bit firmer following reports the ECB is looking at ways to mop up the QE driven excess liquidity in the banking system.• Local trends. RBA minutes today. Population growth is booming. GDP is a volume measure. This can partially offset the drag from higher rates. It has been a quiet start to what could be a busy week given the upcoming central bank meetings. European equities played a bit of catch up...

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