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AUD

06 Sep 2023

USD remains high

• Higher for longer. Solid US services ISM data & rhetoric from central bankers has boosted bond yields. The USD remains near its recent highs.• AUD stabilises. After a difficult run the AUD has consolidated, albeit at low levels. Q2 GDP was on net a bit better than expected with population growth supportive.• Event radar. RBA Governor Lowe gives his last speech (“Some closing remarks”) today. China trade & US jobless claims data are also released. The USD has held its ground and continues to track near multi-month or year-to-date highs against the other major currencies. Data wise, the US...

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05 Sep 2023

AUD battered & bruised

• Stronger USD. Softer data out of China & higher US bond yields on the back of a lift in oil has supported the USD. The JPY, AUD, & NZD hit fresh 2023 lows.• AUD underperformance. The AUD has weakened. As expected the RBA kept rates on hold, though it retained its mild conditional tightening bias.• Relative expectations. We think a lot of positives are factored into the USD & negative AUD sentiment is high. AU Q2 GDP & US services ISM released today. The USD has strengthened over the past 24hrs. Softer than expected second tier China Caixin Services...

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05 Sep 2023

Risk appetite fades on China slowdown fears

The US dollar is stronger against all its major counterparts this morning, building on August’s 1.7-percent gain as weak Chinese data weighs on global risk appetite. US equity futures are setting up for a modestly-weaker open and Treasury yields are up across the curve, helping keep the trade-weighted greenback near six-month highs. Global commodity prices are under pressure, the euro is softer, and both the onshore and offshore Chinese yuan pools are trading below 7.30 to the dollar after the private-sector Caixin services purchasing manager index dropped to 51.8 in August from 54.1 in July (the 50 level marks the...

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05 Sep 2023

RBA: Rinse & Repeat

In what was Governor Lowe’s last meeting at the helm the RBA kept the cash rate steady at 4.1% for the 3rd straight month. This wasn’t a surprise with the recent wave of weaker activity data, slowing inflation, and sluggish growth in China supporting the case for the RBA to stand pat as the full effects of its past moves continue to work their way through the economy. According to the RBA the tighter policy is “working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy”, and the decision to hold fire again in September “will...

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04 Sep 2023

All quiet ahead of the RBA

• US holidays. Limited market moves with the US on holiday. The major currencies are little changed from where they ended last week.• RBA today. No change in rates expected at Governor Lowe’s last meeting at the helm. But a mild conditional tightening bias is likely to be maintained.• AU GDP. Q2 GDP released tomorrow. A large inventory drawdown suggests there is a risk of a negative print. More inputs are released today. With the US on holiday and no major data or events of note elsewhere it has been a quiet start to the week for markets. European equities...

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