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AUD

24 Oct 2023

CPI keeps the pressure on the RBA

The Q3 Australian CPI report positively surprised, further opening the door to another 25bp rate rise by the RBA as soon as the 7 November meeting. While base-effects as last year’s larger price increases rolled out of calculation, pushed annual CPI lower (headline CPI decelerated to 5.4%pa and trimmed mean (the RBA’s preferred core inflation gauge) slowed to 5.2%pa), the underlying inflation pulse remains quite strong. The pull-back in annual inflation was less than anticipated, and quarterly growth stepped up with headline and core CPI both rising by 1.2%qoq. This was above the markets forecast and well north of the...

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24 Oct 2023

Australian inflation in focus

• Data trends. Divergence between the US & Europe weighed on EUR & GBP. The AUD held up against the firmer USD & outperformed on the crosses.• China stimulus. China will issue more debt to fund infrastructure projects. Supports our view that China’s economy has passed its cyclical bottom.• RBA & CPI. Gov. Bullock stressed the Board “will not hesitate” to lift rates again “if there is a material upward revision” to the inflation outlook. CPI released today. Following the bout of volatility induced by sharp swings in bond yields earlier this week markets calmed down overnight. Equities rose with...

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23 Oct 2023

Bond market volatility

• Bond gyrations. Large swings in US bond yields generated volatility across other asset markets. On net US yields fell & this dragged down the USD.• AU events. Ahead of tomorrow’s Q3 CPI data, new RBA Governor Bullock speaks tonight. Will Governor Bullock maintain the more ‘hawkish’ tone?• Global data. The latest batch of Eurozone, UK & US PMIs are due today. The PMIs will provide an update on the pulse of activity & price pressures. Another bout of bond market volatility cascaded through other asset classes overnight. There was little new news or data to rattle nerves or shift...

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22 Oct 2023

Macro trends vs geopolitical risks

• Negative vibes. Equities lost more ground on Friday. Bond yields also dipped, with oil, gold, & the USD consolidating. Middle East developments remain in focus.• AU CPI. Q3 inflation due Wednesday. Quarterly growth in core inflation looks set to step up. A lift could bolster expectations about another RBA rate hike.• Event radar. In addition to AU CPI, RBA Gov. Bullock speaks (Tues & Thurs). The BoC & ECB meet, & in the US Q3 GDP & the PCE deflator are due. Markets ended last week on a weaker footing with developments in the Middle East continuing to dampen...

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19 Oct 2023

US Fed still proceeding carefully

• Market divergence. Equities under pressure, oil & gold higher. Long end yields rose, but the US 2yr rate fell as Fed rate hike bets were pared back.• Fed speak. Chair Powell reiterated his ‘cautious’ stance, disappointing recently built up expectations. The USD lost some ground after he spoke.• AUD vol. AUD has traded in a ~1% range. AU jobs data mixed, but conditions still tight. CPI next week. This could make or break the case for another RBA hike. Markets continue to be whipped around with Middle East developments, equity earnings results, and comments by US Fed Chair Powell...

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