Explore the world.

Assess underlying market conditions and fundamentals in the world's major economies.

World

Stay ahead.

Follow the biggest stories in markets and economics in real time.

Subscribe

Get insight into the latest trends and developments in global currency markets with breaking news updates and research reports delivered right to your inbox.

After signing up, you will receive regular newsletters from Corpay, and may unsubscribe at any time. View Corpay’s Privacy Policy

AUD

Cognitive dissonance in markets begins to correct

Risk-sensitive currencies are giving back some of last week’s gains this morning, tumbling in the face of a resurgent dollar. US Treasury yields are climbing and the greenback is pushing higher as investors begin to question whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates aggressively without a “hard landing” in the economy next year. With unemployment inching up, consumer spending showing clear signs of exhaustion, and business capital expenditures shifting into reverse, the typical indicators of a recession are blinking red, and data out this week—today’s Institute for Supply Management services survey, and Friday’s November non-farm payrolls report—could provide more evidence...

Read More Read More

RBA in focus today

• Partial reversal. US bond yields & the USD rebounded, while US equities dipped. There was no major economic news overnight.• AUD pull-back. Ahead of today’s RBA decision the AUD has lost ground. No change in rates is anticipated with focus on the RBA’s forward guidance.• US jobs. There is a slew of US jobs data out the next few days that will test expectations looking for no further Fed hikes & for cuts to start in May. Short term gyrations continued overnight with US bond yields and the USD rebounding, while across equities the S&P500 (-0.5%) and tech-focused NASDAQ...

Read More Read More

USD doldrums continue

• Fed speak. Some measured comments by Chair Powell & weaker ISM data reinforced expectations the next move by the Fed could be a rate cut.• USD weaker. The drop in US bond yields has exerted more pressure on the USD. AUD has risen back up to the top of its multi-month range.• Event radar. Locally, the RBA’s last meeting of ’23 & Q3 GDP are due. Offshore, focus will be on US labour stats with non-farm payrolls rounding things out. Downward pressure on US bond yields and the USD returned on Friday with the previous days rebound fleeting. Comments...

Read More Read More

USD rebound. But for how long?

• Mixed markets. Equities edged higher, bond yields rose, & the USD rebounded. The AUD has slipped back over the past few sessions.• Data pulse. Eurozone CPI slowed more than expected, weighing on EUR. US data showed spending & inflation are moderating. Unemployment claims are rising.• AUD dips. AUD has given back some ground. RBA next week. No change expected, but we think the pressure to move again in early-2024 remains. A bit of a reversal of fortunes across markets overnight. However, while some of it was macro related, month-end ‘window dressing’ as investors rebalance exposures after sharp moves over...

Read More Read More

USD continues to lose its shine

• Fed rhetoric. Comments by the Fed’s Waller were in focus. Waller’s message supported the view that the next Fed move will probably be a rate cut.• Market repricing. The pull-back in US bond yields & the USD extended. EUR, NZD & AUD edged up to multi-month highs. USD/JPY lost some ground.• Trans-Tasman Events. Locally, the monthly CPI indicator due today. A slowdown in annual inflation is predicted. RBNZ expected to keep rates steady. The pull-back in bond yields and the USD extended overnight as expectations that the US Fed’s tightening cycle has ended were reinforced by policymaker comments. The...

Read More Read More