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AUD

10 Dec 2023

US Fed in focus this week

• US jobs. Payrolls were a bit higher than forecast & US unemployment dipped. US equities & yields rose giving the USD some support.• FX moves. The USD rebound was modest. Most of the major pairs, including the AUD, only slipped back to where they were tracking the day earlier.• Event radar. Locally, jobs data is due. Offshore, the US Fed, ECB & BoE meet. On top of that US CPI & retail sales are released, as is the China data batch. Positive sentiment across financial markets continued into the end of last week. A better-than-expected US labour market report...

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07 Dec 2023

BoJ finally set to join the party?

• JPY surge. Comments by BoJ officials has bolstered expectations a change could be coming. The jump in the JPY has cascaded across FX markets.• USD weaker. The 2.6% drop in USD/JPY (the 2nd most traded currency pair) has given other currencies a boost. AUD is back over ~$0.66.• US jobs. US labour market report released tonight. The end of the auto strike can give employment a temporary boost. But broader conditions should loosen. The tone across markets was a bit more positive overnight. US equities rebounded (S&P500 +0.8), with the tech-focused NASDAQ outperforming (+1.3%). Optimism about Artificial Intelligence re-emerged...

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06 Dec 2023

Growth worries return

• Bond yields. Weaker than expected data & drop in oil has bolstered rate cut bets, pushing long-end bond yields lower once again.• Shaky sentiment. Negative sentiment gave the USD a bit of a boost. After clawing back ground earlier on, the AUD is back down where it was 24hrs ago.• AU GDP. Economic momentum has stepped down. While the growth outlook supports the case for no more hikes, RBA cuts could still be some time away. Global bonds have continued to power ahead. Weaker than expected data and an oil price slump has eased inflation worries, bolstered rate cut...

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05 Dec 2023

Australia’s growth pulse: down but not out

Australian GDP data is notoriously backward looking. We are now ~2/3’s of the way through Q4 and the print for Q3 was only released today. Nevertheless, the detailed national accounts are still useful in providing a guide to the underlying picture across a broad range of areas and helps us benchmark how trends are unfolding compared with our thoughts. The GDP report illustrates that momentum across the economy has stepped down, unsurprising given the 425bps worth of rate hikes put through by the RBA this cycle and other cost of living factors that are hitting the private sector. The economy...

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05 Dec 2023

Bond yields fall again

• Lower yields. A drop in US job openings & dovish ECB comments weighed on bond yields. But relatively larger falls in Europe supported the USD.• RBA holds. No change from the RBA. The lack of a tweak to its guidance compounded the firmer USD. The AUD’s pull-back extended overnight.• Data flow. Q3 AU GDP due today, while in the US labour stats will remain in focus with ADP employment tonight & non-farm payrolls rounding out the week. Bond market moves were in focus overnight and this flowed through to FX with the USD firmer thanks to some EUR and...

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