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AUD

18 Jan 2024

AUD volatility: a taste of things to come?

With 2023 firmly in the rear-view mirror and markets starting 2024 with a bout of central banker driven upheaval as enthusiastic interest rate cut expectations are pared back, we thought it is an opportune time to spell out our AUD thoughts. And refresh people’s minds about some of the AUD’s historic tendencies which we believe should be kept in mind when managing FX exposures, especially considering the tricky terrain markets and economies will be navigating over coming months. Regular readers of our research would be aware that after an anticipated bout of turbulence over Q3/early-Q4 2023 we were vocal regarding...

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18 Jan 2024

Rate expectations continue to adjust

• Yield rebound. Upside surprises in US retail sales & UK inflation has seen markets pare back rate cut expectations. Higher yields have supported the USD & GBP.• Negative vibes. The shifting interest rate outlook & patchy China data has dampened risk sentiment. The AUD’s slide has continued.• AU jobs. December labour force report released today. It could be a volatile month. Another positive result could help the AUD stabilise. The rebound in bond yields and the USD, and pull-back in risk assets (including the AUD) has continued with stronger US retail sales and a re-acceleration in UK inflation raising...

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16 Jan 2024

No need to rush

• USD rebound. The rise in US yields on the back of comments by the Fed’s Waller has supported the USD. AUD is under ~$0.66 for the first time in a month.• Slow & steady. Waller noted cuts shouldn’t be rushed. March too soon to start, but markets already pricing in a slower & shallower cutting cycle than in the past.• Volatility. China data released today, US retail sales due tonight, & the Australian jobs report is out tomorrow. The data flow points to more volatility. A bout of market turbulence has come through with a jump in US bond...

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14 Jan 2024

Diverging economic fortunes

• US yields. Softer US producer prices supported views inflation pressures are receding. Expectations of multiple Fed cuts in 2024 remain. US 2yr yields fell.• Stable FX. Despite the drop in US yields the USD consolidated. AUD is hovering just under ~$0.67. The RBA outlook continues to diverge from its peers.• Event radar. Offshore the China data batch, US retail sales & comments by Fed/ECB officials will be in focus. Locally, the December jobs report is due. A quiet end to last week across FX markets with the major currencies range bound on Friday. The USD Index held its ground...

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11 Jan 2024

US CPI surprise

• US CPI. Data slightly higher than forecast. This triggered a bout of market volatility. After an initial jump in yields & the USD, & drop in equities, markets reversed.• Glass half full. US yields fell as some underlying inflation trends still support the outlook for eventual Fed policy easing, though a move in March looks too soon.• AUD vol. Further bouts of AUD volatility likely given where we are in the cycle. Since the float the AUD has, on average, traded in a ~13cent range each year. Markets endured a burst of volatility overnight in the wake of the...

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