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AUD

27 Feb 2024

Will the RBNZ re-start is hiking cycle?

• Low vol. US/European equities consolidated, while bond yields nudged up. FX markets were well contained. AUD range traded over the past 24hrs.• RBNZ decision. RBNZ meets today. Markets are assigning a ~21% chance they hike rates. No change could see the NZD fall & AUD/NZD snap back.• AU CPI. January reading of the monthly CPI indicator due today. Annual inflation forecast to re-accelerate. This may catch the eye & give the AUD a boost. Another uneventful session overnight. US and European equities consolidated (S&P500 +0.1%), with yesterday’s lift in Asia not flowing through (China’s CSI300 index rose 1.2%, its...

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26 Feb 2024

Rate markets continue to adjust

• Yields rise. Near-term rate cut bets continue to be trimmed back. This pushed up European & US bond yields, with EUR a little firmer.• Low vol. Outside of bonds, volatility across other major asset markets is below average. Japanese inflation, Fed speakers & US data in focus today.• AUD softer. Lower base metal prices have exerted a bit of pressure on the AUD. But correlations between the AUD & iron ore aren’t what they used to be. The subdued market performance has continued with relatively modest moves across most asset classes at the start of the week. As our...

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20 Feb 2024

AUD recovery continues

• US markets. US equities lost ground, while global trends exerted pressure on US yields. USD generally softer with the AUD’s grind up extending.• Yields fall. Lower Canadian inflation, ‘dovish’ BoE comments, & a cut to China’s 5yr lending rate weighed on global bond yields.• AU wages. Q4 wages released today. Annual growth expected to tick up. Faster wages can keep services inflation high & the RBA on a different path to its peers. A few market gyrations overnight. A pull-back in ‘big tech’ ahead of some earnings announcements dragged the US S&P500 (-0.7%) a little further from its all-time...

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19 Feb 2024

Hold the line

• Holiday trade. Minimal moves with the US on holiday. European equities consolidated, while the major currencies remained range bound.• USD trends. ECB wage indicator & Canadian CPI tonight. US Fed commentary in focus later this week with markets now pricing in little chance of a March cut.• AUD drivers. February minutes released today & wage data due tomorrow. Signals from China suggest spending was positive during Lunar New Year. With the US closed for Presidents Day and newsflow limited there were minimal market moves overnight. European equities consolidated with the EuroStoxx600 (+0.2%) making its way up towards its January...

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18 Feb 2024

Fed speak on this weeks radar

• Diverging markets. US yields rose & the S&P500 dipped after US producer prices exceeded expectations. However the USD eased. AUD at ~$0.6530.• Holiday data. High frequency data & reports suggest Chinese spending & travel exceeded pre-COVID run-rates. Is the tide finally turning?• Event radar. Locally, Q4 wages is due (Weds). US Fed commentary in focus with several members speaking later in the week. Eurozone PMIs released (Thurs). Markets consolidated on Friday night. In contrast to the Japanese Nikkei which touched another multi-decade high US equities unwound the modest gains from the previous day (S&P500 -0.5%) with higher bond yields...

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