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AUD

Risk Sentiment Thaws on Chinese Recovery Efforts

Risk-sensitive assets are seeing a modest sentiment boost this morning as Chinese authorities move to stem the bleeding in stock markets, with top officials reportedly preparing to brief President Xi Jinping on their efforts. Onshore share indices moved higher overnight after the government imposed new restrictions on short-sellers, the state-owned Central Huijin Investment Ltd. said it would add more exchange-traded funds to its holdings, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission pledged “greater efforts” in encouraging buying from institutional investors. US equity futures are setting up for a stronger open, ten-year Treasury yields are inching lower after a circa-28 basis point...

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RBA: A more balanced approach

At its first meeting of 2024, and the first under the new ~6-weekly structure which also saw the bank release its latest economic projections, the RBA kept the cash rate steady at 4.35%. This was expected with more attention on the RBA’s updated reading of the macro landscape and its policy guidance. In the end the RBA played a rather straight bat by continuing to stress that “returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority” and noting that “while recent data indicate that inflation is easing, it remains high”. With that in mind, in the...

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Will the RBA stop the AUD’s slide?

• Fed repricing. Positive US services ISM & Fed rhetoric has seen markets continue to pare back rate cut bets. Rising US yields are supporting the USD.• RBA today. The decision & new forecasts are released at 2:30pm AEDT with Gov. Bullock holding a press conference from 3:30pm AEDT.• Push back? No policy change expected. Focus will be on the RBA’s guidance. Will it follow the BoE & US Fed by leaning against rate cut forecasts? The upswing in bond yields and the USD has continued at the start of the new week. A positive surprise in the US ISM...

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Markets jolted by US jobs

• US jobs. A much stronger than expected US jobs report jolted markets. US yields rose. This supported the USD & pushed the AUD back to the bottom of its range.• Too good to be true? Issues with seasonal factors & weather impacts could have made a good set of numbers look great. Payback likely over time.• RBA in focus. A new year & a new format. No policy change anticipated. But Governor Bullock could follow the Fed & BoE in pushing back on rate cut bets. Another day another burst of volatility on Friday with a bumper US jobs...

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US jobs report on the radar

• Push-pull. US equities rose, bond yields dipped & the USD reversed course as markets focused on the looming easing cycle. AUD traded in a 1.1% range.• BoE holds. BoE mirrored the US Fed. Reference to further tightening was removed, but policymakers still not at the point to cut rates. GBP firmer.• US jobs. US labour market report in focus tonight. The data may generate another burst of FX volatility as it can influence US interest rate expectations. Another busy session overnight with participants also continuing to digest yesterday’s US Fed meeting. US equities bounced back (S&P500 +1.1%) with a...

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