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AUD

10 Apr 2024

Another US CPI market jolt

• US inflation. A higher than expected US CPI generated a sharp repricing in US rate expectations. This supported the USD & dampened sentiment.• AUD tumble. The shift in market pricing & stronger USD has push the AUD lower with the AUD’s April revival unwinding overnight.• AUD crosses. The AUD also underperformed on the crosses. We think this looks a bit overdone. ECB meeting, US PPI, & Fed speakers in focus tonight. Another hotter than projected US CPI reading jolted markets overnight as it further challenged the US Fed’s view that inflation pressures are on a glidepath back down to...

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09 Apr 2024

All eyes on US inflation

• Waiting game. Most markets consolidate ahead of tonight’s US CPI report. US bond yields a little lower, while the USD index tread water.• AUD revival. Firmer base metal prices helped the AUD. The AUD’s recent rebound is inline with its seasonal pattern. Will the US CPI stop its upswing?• RBNZ meeting. RBNZ meets today. It may not (yet) tweak its forward guidance. This may see AUD/NZD’s upturn temporarily stall. Tonight’s US CPI inflation report (10:30pm AEST) is the key event for markets, and with it coming closer into view it isn’t surprising most of major asset classes consolidated overnight....

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26 Mar 2024

Holding firm

• Limited moves. Equities mixed, bond yields drifted back, & the USD is little changed. AUD is close to where it was this time yesterday.• Low vol. Measures of equity & FX volatility are now well below average. Markets could be complacent to the macro & geopolitical risks still lurking.• AU CPI. The monthly CPI indicator due today. More info on services is provided. We think inflation could re-accelerate by more than expected. Limited moves across markets overnight with not much new information coming through to shift the dial. In contrast to the small rise across European equities US stocks...

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25 Mar 2024

Waiting game

• Quiet start. Global equities mixed. Bond yields drifted higher. USD a little softer. AUD has clawed back a bit of ground over the past 24hrs.• CNH & JPY. Authorities in China have pushed back on recent CNH weakness. Rhetoric from Japanese officials about JPY weakness has also ramped up.• Data flow. US durable goods orders in focus tonight. Locally, the monthly CPI indicator is due tomorrow & retail sales are released on Thursday. It has been a typically quiet start to the holiday shortened week with limited new news over the past 24hrs. Most of the major global equity...

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24 Mar 2024

Can the stronger USD last?

• Firmer USD. US equities consolidated, bond yields dipped, while the USD’s upturn continued despite some better than expected European data.• Weaker CNH. A catalyst behind the USD strength was the weaker CNH. Given its tight correlation the lift in USD/CNH exerted more pressure on the AUD.• Event radar. US durable goods orders & the PCE deflator are due. There are also a few Fed speakers. Locally, the monthly CPI indicator & retail sales are released. After a run of positive days US equities consolidated on Friday near record highs (S&P500 -0.1%). That said, over the week the S&P500 still...

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