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Markets Remain Unnervingly Calm Ahead of Inflation Numbers

Liquidity conditions remain remarkably thin across currency markets as participants cut risk ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report. Equity markets are consolidating yesterday’s gains, ten-year Treasury yields are 3 basis points lower overnight, the Canadian dollar is down even as oil advances, and no major currency pair is more than a quarter-percentage point off levels that prevailed when we penned yesterday’s note. We’re borrrrrrred. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell avoided providing anything that could be construed as forward guidance at yesterday’s conference on central bank independence in Stockholm. In a speech focused on the Fed’s unique and specific mandate, Mr. Powell...

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Market Briefing: Dollar fades as rebalancing flows gain momentum

Currency market volumes are rebounding as participants return to their desks and position for a reversal of the US exceptionalism trade that dominated throughout 2022. The dollar is weaker against every other major this morning, and yields are softer across the front end of the curve – even as traders brace for relatively-hawkish meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve later in the day. The Aussie is a clear outperformer after Chinese authorities began discussing an end to an unofficial ban on Australian coal imports. Unconfirmed reports circulated by Bloomberg and Reuters this morning suggest the National Development and Reform Commission...

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Market Briefing: Markets stay defensive after hotter-than-expected services data

The Institute for Supply Management said yesterday that its service sector index climbed in November from the month before, providing more evidence of resilience in the American economy. The measure ticked up to 56.5 from October’s 54.4, remaining well above 50, the threshold between expansion and contraction. Investors reacted badly, boosting bets on more hikes from the Federal Reserve, buying the dollar, and selling risk-sensitive currencies en masse. Markets look rudderless this morning, with the greenback holding ground as the other majors turn in a mixed performance. Yields are stable after yesterday’s jump, and equity futures are pointing to a...

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Market Briefing: Year-end rebalancing flows weigh on dollar into quiet data week

The dollar continues to lose altitude as market participants gradually rebalance portfolios ahead of a new calendar year. With US economic outperformance fading, the Federal Reserve expected to slow and then pause its tightening cycle, energy prices falling, and geopolitical shocks fading, many investors have become less willing to crowd into long-greenback positions, and demand for alternatives is growing. Oil prices are steady even after the Group of Seven industrialized democracies agreed to cap shipments of Russian crude at $60 a barrel. Under the plan, Western companies will be barred from insuring, financing, or shipping Russian oil unless it is...

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Market Briefing: China unrest rocks global markets

Markets are in risk-off mode this morning as protests against China’s “zero-covid” policies boil over and raise uncertainty in the world’s second-largest economy. Treasury yields are slumping as investors seek safety and speculators unwind leveraged positions, and the dollar is trading on a slightly weaker footing. The bravery of people confronting a regime with unsurpassed control over its citizens has been inspiring and astonishing, but Beijing’s long history of stamping out dissent would suggest that the current bout of unrest will be short-lived, with limited implications for the broader global economy. Xi Jinping is unlikely to hand protestors a symbolic...

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