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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

28 Jun 2023

AUD tumbles

• Central bankers. Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde & BoE Governor Bailey maintained a ‘hawkish’ message. The BoJ remains an outlier.• AUD slides. AUD has continued to fall (now 4.3% below its mid-June highs). A firmer USD compounded the slowdown in Australian headline inflation.• AU events. Retail sales & job vacancies due today. A soft retail sales print is likely to add to the AUD’s woes. RBA meets next week. Central bank speak was in focus overnight with Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey, and BoJ Governor Ueda appearing on a panel. On net, a ‘hawkish’...

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27 Jun 2023

Higher for longer

• Diverging markets. US equities higher, supported by stronger data. Bond yields up with ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from ECB President Lagarde also at play.• FX markets. USD mixed. EUR firmer, while USD/JPY edged up. The world’s key central bankers speak tonight. Could this rattle risk markets?• AUD mixed. AUD unwound its CNY strength inspired gains. AUD/EUR lower. Australia’s monthly CPI indicator is released today. Mixed fortunes across markets overnight with stronger than expected US economic data and ‘hawkish’ messages from central bankers pulling asset classes in different directions. In terms of the data, US new home sales increased to their highest...

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26 Jun 2023

Growth worries

• Growth concerns. Weaker German IFO data is another sign the global economy is losing steam. Risk sentiment remains cautious.• Central bankers. The major global central bankers speak tomorrow night. An inflation fighting message could keep the USD firm, in our view.• AUD sluggish. Global backdrop is weighing on the AUD. We see a bit more downside. Locally, CPI indicator & retail sales are due over coming days. Choppy trade to start the new week, but on net risk sentiment remains cautious with growth concerns front of mind. The dramatic weekend events in Russia haven’t generated a meaningful market impact....

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25 Jun 2023

Recession risks rattle markets

• Global worries. PMI data underwhelmed reinforcing recession concerns. Equities & bond yields fell, while the USD has strengthened.• AUD pressure. The backdrop has weighed on the cyclical AUD. Locally, the CPI indicator (Weds) & retail sales (Thurs) can influence RBA rate hike expectations.• Central bankers. Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey, & BoJ Governor Ueda speak on Wednesday. Risks markets remained under pressure at the end of last week as global recession concerns rattled nerves. Weekend geopolitical developments in Russia is another thing to add to the ‘worry wall’. Economically, the June business PMIs for the...

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22 Jun 2023

Hawks in the BoE nest

• Hawkish surprise. BoE delivered a 50bp hike. At 5% the BoE bank rate is at its highest since early-2008. High inflation points to more hikes to come.• Markets thinking ahead. UK long-end bond yields & GBP dipped as the negative economic impacts of higher rates start to become more of a focus.• Firmer USD. US yields & the USD rose. AUD slipped back further. Weaker global growth is a negative backdrop for risk sentiment & the AUD. Central banks remain laser focused on breaking the back of high/sticky inflation, with growth considerations still down the pecking order. Overnight, the...

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