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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

30 Apr 2023

All eyes on the central banks

• Mixed signals. Eurozone data undershoots, while the US Employment Cost Index indicates inflation pressures remain strong. China manufacturing PMI dips back into ‘contractionary’ territory.• Central banks in focus. US Fed and ECB expected to hike rates again later this week. We think there are ‘hawkish’ risks given the inflation pulse.• AUD & the RBA. We are forecasting the RBA to remain on hold once again. Weaker China data and diverging policy trends are AUD headwinds. A positive end to April for risk markets with US equity indices rising by 0.7-0.8% on Friday on the back of solid earnings reports,...

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27 Apr 2023

BoJ & US data in focus

• Improved sentiment. Equities & bond yields higher overnight. The more upbeat risk appetite has supported the AUD in otherwise quiet FX markets.• US data flow. Topline US GDP growth undershot forecasts, but this was because of inventories. Price measures remain high. The ECI & PCE deflator due tonight. The US Fed still has more work to do to tame inflation.• BoJ in focus. Inflation & wage pressures in Japan are building. It appears inevitable the BoJ shifts course. Could the first steps be taken today? Sentiment improved overnight, with equities and bond yields higher. In the US, the S&P500...

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26 Apr 2023

AUD struggles

• Ongoing concerns. Banking issues remain in the US, while various indicators like the copper price point to a sharp slowdown in global growth.• AUD under pressure. Global backdrop compounded by softer Q1 Australian CPI. We expect the RBA to hold steady again at next week’s meeting.• US data in focus. US Q1 GDP released tonight, while the Employment Cost Index and PCE deflator are due tomorrow. Sentiment across markets continues to have a negative vibe. Banking sector concerns and growth worries remain front of mind. Outside of the US tech-focused NASDAQ, which was boosted by robust earnings from a...

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25 Apr 2023

Growth & banking concerns return

• Negative vibes. Growth concerns and renewed banking sector worries weighed on risk sentiment. Equities, bond yields, and commodities lower.• AUD under pressure. The backdrop has supported the USD and JPY, and helped push AUD/USD down to within 1% of its 2023 low.• CPI in focus. Australia Q1 CPI released today. Annual inflation predicted to slow. This is the last major local release ahead of the 2 May RBA meeting. Risk sentiment soured overnight as growth concerns and renewed banking sector nerves weighed on investors’ minds. Banking stocks were dragged lower, firstly in Europe by some disappointing results, and then...

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23 Apr 2023

Service sector resilience

• Diverging trends. Business surveys show that manufacturing is slowing, but services are still strong. This suggests policy still isn’t tight enough.• BoJ surprise? This Friday’s BoJ meeting is the first for new Governor Ueda. Tweaks can’t be ruled out. A ‘surprise’ would ripple through FX markets.• AUD sluggish. Weaker global manufacturing momentum weighed on metals prices and the AUD. AU CPI inflation released on Wednesday. Risk sentiment improved on Friday. European and US equities posted some modest gains (S&P500 +0.1%, Eurostoxx50 +0.5%) and bond yields rebounded. The US 2-year bond yield rose ~8bps to 4.18%, and the 10-year ticked...

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