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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

03 Jul 2023

Will the RBA hike or hold?

• Quiet trade. Minimal moves ahead of today’s US holiday. Yields tick up, with markets shrugging off the deterioration in the US manufacturing ISM.• RBA today. Will they hike or hold? Expectations are split. Markets have a ~32% chance of a hike, while 13 of 27 analysts surveyed have the RBA moving.• AUD reaction. Based on market pricing short-term AUD reaction could be uneven. But as seen in June a RBA rate rise isn’t the be-all & end-all for the AUD. Markets were quiet overnight with US trading sessions shortened due to today’s 4 July holiday. US equities inched higher...

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02 Jul 2023

Another line-ball RBA meeting

• Risk on. Softer US spending & PCE inflation data supported risk sentiment on Friday. Equities higher. US bond yields consolidated. USD lost some ground.• RBA in focus. Will they hike or pause on Tuesday? Markets & the analyst community are evenly split. This points to a binary short-term AUD reaction.• AUD forces. As shown last month, RBA actions aren’t the only thing that matter for the AUD. A solid US labour market report on Friday could boost the USD. A positive end to last week for risk markets with equities rising on Friday, while bond yields consolidated, and the...

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29 Jun 2023

Even higher for even longer

• Rates re-pricing. Positive US GDP & jobless claims data has seen interest rate expectations adjust higher. US bond yields have moved up.• USD firm. The repricing has supported the USD, although yesterday’s better than expected AU retail sales data has helped the AUD hold its ground.• AUD events. Ahead of next week’s ‘line-ball’ RBA rate decision, the China PMIs, Eurozone CPI, and US PCE deflator are due today. Bond markets came alive overnight, with yields spiking on the back of stronger than anticipated data. In the US, the run of positive surprises continued. Q1 US GDP growth was revised...

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28 Jun 2023

AUD tumbles

• Central bankers. Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde & BoE Governor Bailey maintained a ‘hawkish’ message. The BoJ remains an outlier.• AUD slides. AUD has continued to fall (now 4.3% below its mid-June highs). A firmer USD compounded the slowdown in Australian headline inflation.• AU events. Retail sales & job vacancies due today. A soft retail sales print is likely to add to the AUD’s woes. RBA meets next week. Central bank speak was in focus overnight with Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey, and BoJ Governor Ueda appearing on a panel. On net, a ‘hawkish’...

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27 Jun 2023

Higher for longer

• Diverging markets. US equities higher, supported by stronger data. Bond yields up with ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from ECB President Lagarde also at play.• FX markets. USD mixed. EUR firmer, while USD/JPY edged up. The world’s key central bankers speak tonight. Could this rattle risk markets?• AUD mixed. AUD unwound its CNY strength inspired gains. AUD/EUR lower. Australia’s monthly CPI indicator is released today. Mixed fortunes across markets overnight with stronger than expected US economic data and ‘hawkish’ messages from central bankers pulling asset classes in different directions. In terms of the data, US new home sales increased to their highest...

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