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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

17 Aug 2023

Bond yields & China in focus

• Bond moves. Yields have continued to rise. The US 10-yr is at its highest since late-2007. This has exerted more pressure on equities. USD remains firm.• CNY focus. Trends in China & CNY remain in focus. Policymakers in China appear to be becoming uncomfortable with the CNY weakness.• AU jobs. Labour market data undershot expectations. Unemployment rose in July, extending the AUD weakness. But is the AUD starting to find a base? Developments in bond markets and China remain front of mind. Against a backdrop of light news and economic dataflow bond yields have risen further. Concerns that rates...

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16 Aug 2023

Negative vibes

• Wall of worry. China worries, sticky UK inflation & a hawkish tone in the Fed minutes weighed on risk sentiment, pushed up US yields & supported the USD.• AUD pressure. The backdrop has exerted more pressure on the AUD. The AUD is in rarefied air. Since 2015 AUD/USD has only been lower in ~2% of trading days.• AU jobs. July labour force report released today. The labour market is a lagging indicator. Consensus is looking for unemployment to tick up slightly to 3.6%. Familiar themes have continued to drive markets. On the one hand concerns about the state of...

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15 Aug 2023

Under pressure

• Mixed signals. Weak China data & positive surprises in US retail sales, Canadian inflation, & UK wages has rattled market nerves.• Negative vibes. The deluge of data has seen US/European bond yields rise & equity markets fall. USD remains firm. AUD touched another 2023 low.• Upcoming events. No change expected from the RBNZ today. UK CPI, US housing & production data, & the FOMC meeting minutes also due. It has been a busy 24hrs with markets digesting a deluge of data. There were mostly positive surprises with activity and/or inflation metrics generally coming in hotter than expected, though China...

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14 Aug 2023

China concerns

• Choppy markets. Developments in China weighed on risk sentiment yesterday, but things settled down overnight. US equities & bond yields higher.• Stronger USD. Higher US yields & China-related nerves pushed the USD to year-to-date highs against the CNH, JPY, SGD, NZD, & AUD.• Data focus. RBA meeting minutes, Q2 AU wages, China activity data batch, UK labour stats, & US retail sales due today. It has been a choppy start to the week for markets. Negative sentiment around developments in China weighed on sentiment during yesterday’s Asian session with investors appearing somewhat concerned about potential fallout from troubles in...

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13 Aug 2023

Inflation fears linger

• Inflation jolt. Stronger than expected US PPI data pushed US bond yields & the USD higher. US retail sales & FOMC meeting minutes due this week.• AUD struggles. Shaky sentiment & a firmer USD have weighed on the AUD. Since 2015 the AUD has only traded sub $0.65 ~3% of trading days.• Upcoming events. In addition to the US releases, the China data batch, RBNZ meeting, UK CPI, AU wages & AU jobs report are in focus this week. Equity markets remained on the backfoot on Friday as bond yields continued to edge higher following a run of stronger...

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