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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

11 Sep 2023

FX is a relative game

• Words & actions. ‘Hawkish’ comments by the by BoJ Governor supported bond yields & the JPY. Authorities in China push back against CNY weakness.• AUD turn? Positive risk sentiment, better China credit data, & a softer USD stemming from a firmer JPY & CNY have given the AUD a boost.• Data flow. AU sentiment data released today with US CPI (Weds), AU jobs report, US retail sales, ECB meeting (all Thurs), & China data (Fri) due later this week. In what is likely to be a busy week given the string of upcoming macro focal points, markets were a...

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10 Sep 2023

Will the US data underwhelm?

Quiet markets. Equities consolidated on Friday. US yields & oil ticked up. In FX, the USD is tracking at high levels, with the AUD hovering just above its 2023 lows.JPY focus. Japanese officials continue to ramp up the rhetoric about JPY weakness. BoJ Governor Ueda also gave a rather ‘hawkish’ interview.Event risks. AU business conditions, US CPI, AU employment, US retail sales, the ECB meeting, & the China activity data are due this week. Without any fresh economic news global markets were restrained on Friday. Across equities, the US S&P500 was slightly higher (+0.1%), while the European EuroStoxx50 outperformed (+0.4%)...

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07 Sep 2023

AUD finding a base?

• Negative vibes. A more cautious tone overnight with equities & bond yields lower. The USD remains firm, with EUR & GBP weakening.• AUD consolidation. Despite the shaky risk backdrop the AUD has held its ground, albeit at low levels. A lot of negatives now look to be factored in• Event radar. AU business conditions, US CPI, AU employment, US retail sales, the ECB meeting, & the China activity data are due next week. A slightly cautious tone across markets overnight. Following on from the weakness in Asia the major European and US equity markets edged lower with the NASDAQ...

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06 Sep 2023

USD remains high

• Higher for longer. Solid US services ISM data & rhetoric from central bankers has boosted bond yields. The USD remains near its recent highs.• AUD stabilises. After a difficult run the AUD has consolidated, albeit at low levels. Q2 GDP was on net a bit better than expected with population growth supportive.• Event radar. RBA Governor Lowe gives his last speech (“Some closing remarks”) today. China trade & US jobless claims data are also released. The USD has held its ground and continues to track near multi-month or year-to-date highs against the other major currencies. Data wise, the US...

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05 Sep 2023

AUD battered & bruised

• Stronger USD. Softer data out of China & higher US bond yields on the back of a lift in oil has supported the USD. The JPY, AUD, & NZD hit fresh 2023 lows.• AUD underperformance. The AUD has weakened. As expected the RBA kept rates on hold, though it retained its mild conditional tightening bias.• Relative expectations. We think a lot of positives are factored into the USD & negative AUD sentiment is high. AU Q2 GDP & US services ISM released today. The USD has strengthened over the past 24hrs. Softer than expected second tier China Caixin Services...

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