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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

14 Nov 2023

US CPI jolts markets

• US CPI. Lower than expected US inflation generated a sharp downward repricing in US rates. The plunge in bond yields weighed on the USD & boosted sentiment.• AUD jolt. The backdrop has seen the AUD rebound with the over 2% rise over the past 24hrs unwinding the bulk of last week’s fall.• Data flow. Q3 wages released today, as is the China data batch. US retail sales are due tonight with the Australian jobs report out tomorrow. All eyes were on the latest reading on US CPI inflation, and the lower than projected figures jolted markets back to life...

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13 Nov 2023

All eyes on US CPI

• Quiet trade. US equities & the USD consolidated, while yields slipped back a little. The AUD ticked up, although this follows last week’s negative run.• US inflation. US CPI released tonight. There are a few push-pull factors are play this month. Reaction in US yields & the USD is likely to be binary.• Event risks. The calendar is packed with other releases the next few days. China data batch & AU wages due tomorrow, & US retail sales is tomorrow night. It has been a subdued start to the week across markets with investors marking time ahead of the...

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12 Nov 2023

US data in the spotlight

• Positive sentiment. US equities rose sharply on Friday, while oil & bond yields ticked up. USD consolidated. AUD stabilised after a torrid few days.• RBA projections. RBA revised up its growth outlook. It is also forecasting a slower return by inflation to target. Risk of another rate hike remains.• Event radar. Offshore, US CPI, US retail sales & the China activity data are released this week. Locally, Q3 wages & the monthly jobs report are due. In contrast to the softness during Friday’s Asian and European sessions, risk appetite was positive in US trade. US equities rose sharply with...

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08 Nov 2023

Oil slick

• Mixed markets. Equities ticked up with the S&P500 enjoying its 8th straight gain. USD index consolidated, but commodity currencies like the AUD slipped back.• Bonds & oil. The slide in long-end bond yields & oil continued. US 10yr yields are now ~50bps below the late-October peak. Oil is at a multi-month low.• AUD stumble. AUD has given back ~1/2 its recent rebound. Domestic wage & jobs data released next week could see AU rate expectations rebound. With not too much economic news most markets have consolidated over the past day. Equities have generally ticked up with the major European...

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06 Nov 2023

RBA: will they or won’t they?

• Consolidation. Bond yields recovered a bit of lost ground, though moves across FX were limited. The USD is a little firmer. AUD slipped back under $0.65.• Another RBA hike? RBA in focus today. Most analysts expect another 25bp hike. Markets are less sure with a ~65% chance of a move factored in.• AUD vol. A hike combined with an ongoing tightening bias should be AUD positive. But a no change decision could trigger a larger knee-jerk AUD fall. After last weeks outsized market moves, it isn’t surprising to see that there was some modest payback overnight. US equities were...

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