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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

22 Jan 2024

Will the BoJ hold the line?

• Subdued markets. US equities added to their gains, bond yields drifted a bit lower, & the USD ticked up. AUD slipped back towards ~$0.6570.• BoJ decision. No changes by the BoJ anticipated today. But there is always scope for a surprise. If it were to occur, the ‘under-valued’ JPY would lift.• NZ inflation. Q4 NZ CPI due tomorrow. Inflation slowdown set to extend. A large drop could reinforce RBNZ rate cut views, a support for AUD/NZD. It has been quiet start to the week across markets. This isn’t surprising given the lack of economic data releases and with members...

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21 Jan 2024

Global events in focus

• Upbeat tone. US S&P500 closed at a record high. Base metals prices lifted. The USD drifted a little lower & the AUD clawed back a bit more ground.• Bond yields. US yields were, on net, little changed. Ahead of the blackout period a few Fed members spoke. Odds of a March rate cut below ~50%.• Event radar. Offshore, the macro focus this week will be on the BoJ, Q4 NZ CPI, the Eurozone PMIs, ECB decision, Q4 US GDP, & US PCE deflator. The relatively more upbeat mood in markets continued Friday with the tech sector inspired upswing in...

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18 Jan 2024

Markets calm down, but for how long?

• Improved sentiment. Equities took the latest uptick in the US 10yr yield in their stride. Limited FX moves with the AUD a relative outperformer for a change.• AU jobs. The ‘labour force lottery’ lived up to its volatile nature. Following a few strong months employment fell sharply but unemployment held steady.• Vol. to continue. The laundry list of uncertainties and macro/geopolitical flashpoints suggests the recent volatility could be a taste of things to come. Risk sentiment improved overnight with a further modest rise in long-end bond yields not causing the same market turbulence as it has recently. On the...

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18 Jan 2024

Rate expectations continue to adjust

• Yield rebound. Upside surprises in US retail sales & UK inflation has seen markets pare back rate cut expectations. Higher yields have supported the USD & GBP.• Negative vibes. The shifting interest rate outlook & patchy China data has dampened risk sentiment. The AUD’s slide has continued.• AU jobs. December labour force report released today. It could be a volatile month. Another positive result could help the AUD stabilise. The rebound in bond yields and the USD, and pull-back in risk assets (including the AUD) has continued with stronger US retail sales and a re-acceleration in UK inflation raising...

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16 Jan 2024

No need to rush

• USD rebound. The rise in US yields on the back of comments by the Fed’s Waller has supported the USD. AUD is under ~$0.66 for the first time in a month.• Slow & steady. Waller noted cuts shouldn’t be rushed. March too soon to start, but markets already pricing in a slower & shallower cutting cycle than in the past.• Volatility. China data released today, US retail sales due tonight, & the Australian jobs report is out tomorrow. The data flow points to more volatility. A bout of market turbulence has come through with a jump in US bond...

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