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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

07 Jan 2024

A new year market reversal

• Market reversal. Late-2023 rally lost steam. Equities have given back ground over early-January, bond yields are higher, & the USD is firmer. AUD near ~$0.6725.• US jobs. Payrolls rose more than predicted in December. But stepping back there are signs conditions are loosening. Policy easing cycles will be in focus in 2024.• Event radar. Globally, the latest US CPI report is in focus (Fri AEDT). Locally, retail sales (Tues AEDT) & monthly inflation (Weds AEDT) are due. The late-2023 risk rally has lost puff over early 2024. Equities have given back ground over the first week of January (S&P500...

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19 Dec 2023

Santa rally continues

• Positive vibes. US equities posted another gain with the seasonal rally in full swing. Backdrop supported the AUD which touched its highest level since July.• USD softer. USD lost ground with the lift in USD/JPY on the back of a ‘dovish’ BoJ an exception. JPY underperformed with AUD/JPY up ~1.6% over the past 24hrs.• US inflation. PCE deflator (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) due at the end of the week. A deceleration could reinforce rate cut pricing, weighing on the USD. The positive run across risk assets continued overnight. US equities posted another gain with the S&P500 (+0.6%) within striking...

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18 Dec 2023

BoJ in focus

• Holiday vibes. Quiet start to the week. US equities & bond yields a little higher. AUD continues to track near the top-end of its multi-month range.• Fed rhetoric. More Fed members tried to push back on rate cut pricing. PCE deflator (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) due at the end of this week.• Macro events. RBA minutes are due & the BoJ hands down its decision. No change expected, but there is a chance the BoJ lays the platform for future moves. It has been a quiet start to the final week before Christmas across markets. In contrast to...

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17 Dec 2023

Will the BoJ jolt markets?

• Mixed markets. Equities consolidated, long end yields dipped. USD clawed back ground against EUR & GBP. AUD hovering near the top of its range.• Fed push back. NY Fed Pres. Williams tried to curb the rate cut enthusiasm. But the die has been cast. Markets looking to price in the easing cycle.• Event radar. Locally, the minutes of the RBA meeting are due. Offshore, the US PCE deflator is released & the Bank of Japan meets. It was a mixed end to last week for markets. Macro-wise China’s November activity data was generally better than anticipated. Helped by stimulus...

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14 Dec 2023

USD downturn deepens

• Central banks. ECB & BoE kept rates steady but tried to push back on policy easing expectations. This helped EUR & GBP with the USD still under pressure.• Fed impacts. The US Fed’s dovish turn has continued to reverberate across markets. Bond yields fell again & risk sentiment remains positive.• AU jobs. Employment exceeded forecasts & while unemployment ticked up it remains low. China data batch due today. This can impact the AUD. Following yesterdays ‘dovish’ pivot by the US Fed and signals that rate cuts will probably be the next step, central banks remained in focus overnight. As...

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