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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

29 Jan 2024

Upbeat vibes. Will it last?

• Positive tone. US equities higher as bond yields dip. News the US Treasury had reduced its borrowing estimates a factor. USD slips back, AUD firmer.• More vol? There is a long list of global data releases this week, with the US Fed also meeting. More bursts of short-term volatility likely.• AU data. Retail sales expected to decline as Black Friday boost unwinds. Q4 CPI (due tomorrow) likely to come in below the RBA’s thinking. It has been a relatively positive start to an action-packed week that includes US Fed and Bank of England meetings, key global releases such as...

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28 Jan 2024

Will the US Fed lean against rate cut pricing?

• Soft landing? US GDP & PCE inflation data supported ‘soft landing’ views. Growth was better than expected, while inflation pressures continue to ease.• FX consolidation. Despite the macro signals FX majors have been range bound. USD is treading water, with AUD near its 200-day moving average.• Event radar. It is a busy week with Eurozone GDP/CPI, China PMIs, Australian inflation, & a range of US labour stats wrapped around the US Fed meeting. Last weeks economic dataflow supported views the US remains on the very narrow path towards a ‘soft landing’. US GDP exceeded expectations with growth running at...

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24 Jan 2024

China pulls another policy lever

• Positive tone. Equities & commodities higher. US bond yields rose. EUR, GBP & NZD firmer while the AUD has range traded over the past 24hrs.• China & tax cuts. Policymakers in China cut the RRR. Locally, changes to stage 3 tax cuts could see more relief flow to low/middle income earners.• ECB & US GDP. No change expected from the ECB. But will it push back on rate cut pricing? US GDP should confirm another solid quarter of growth. A generally positive mood across markets overnight. Equities rose with the S&P500 (+0.2%) touching a new record high. The EuroStoxx50...

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23 Jan 2024

More policy support in China?

• Mixed markets. US equities a little higher, with long-end bond yields also rising. USD firmer against EUR & GBP. AUD consolidated near ~$0.6580.• China stimulus. Reports of measures aimed at supporting equities gave Chinese stocks & CNH a shot in the arm. BoJ holds steady but gave a ‘hawkish’ hint.• NZ CPI. Headline NZ inflation slowed as expected, but domestic inflation remains sticky. AUD/NZD dipped post this mornings NZ CPI release. A varied performance across markets over the past day, though most moves have been modest. US equities ended the day higher. The S&P500 (+0.3%) is just shy of...

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22 Jan 2024

Will the BoJ hold the line?

• Subdued markets. US equities added to their gains, bond yields drifted a bit lower, & the USD ticked up. AUD slipped back towards ~$0.6570.• BoJ decision. No changes by the BoJ anticipated today. But there is always scope for a surprise. If it were to occur, the ‘under-valued’ JPY would lift.• NZ inflation. Q4 NZ CPI due tomorrow. Inflation slowdown set to extend. A large drop could reinforce RBNZ rate cut views, a support for AUD/NZD. It has been quiet start to the week across markets. This isn’t surprising given the lack of economic data releases and with members...

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