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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

21 Mar 2024

Central banks starting to diverge?

• USD bounce. USD Index recouped yesterday’s post US Fed driven falls. Solid US data & developments in Europe weighed on the major European currencies.• Dovish Europeans. No more members of the BoE are calling for rate hikes. The Swiss National Bank became the first G10 FX central bank to cut this cycle.• AU jobs. Employment jumped & unemployment fell to a multi-month low. Supports our thinking the RBA will lag other central banks in the upcoming easing phase. FX markets have been whipped around a bit over the past couple of sessions on the back of central bank announcements...

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19 Mar 2024

Will the Fed’s ‘dot plot’ change?

• Firmer USD. US equities higher & bond yields a little lower. A higher USD/JPY has boosted the USD. AUD & NZD have shed some more ground.• BoJ & RBA. BoJ hiked rates for the first time since 2007. But markets were underwhelmed. RBA tweaked its forward guidance to more ‘neutral’ language.• US Fed. Focus tomorrow morning will be on the US Fed’s forecasts & guidance. No change to 2024 projections could disappoint ‘hawkish’ expectations. Following a bit of volatility in yesterday’s Asian session after the Bank of Japan changes (and RBA meeting) asset markets were more subdued overnight as...

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17 Mar 2024

Central banks in focus

• Waiting game. Ahead of this week’s key events FX markets consolidated on Friday. USD index tracked sideways. AUD near its 200-day moving average.• Event radar. BoJ, RBA, US Fed, & BoE decisions due this week. China data released today, while NZ GDP & AU jobs due on Thursday.• Central banks. Further bursts of volatility probable. Will the BoJ hike rates for the first time since 2007? Will the US Fed continue to forecast 3 cuts in 2024? With one eye on this week’s central bank meetings global markets largely consolidated on Friday. US bond yields ticked up slightly (the...

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14 Mar 2024

US stagflation vibes

• Stagflation worries. US retail sales underwhelm while stronger producer prices raised concerns about the inflation outlook. US yields rose. USD a bit firmer.• AUD slips. Higher US yields exerted pressure on the AUD. But the intra-day swing was below average. Focus today will be on Japanese wage outcomes.• Upcoming events. BoJ, RBA, US Fed, & BoE meet next week. Will the BoJ finally move? On top of that the China activity data & AU jobs report are due. A few wobbles across risk markets overnight as “stagflation vibes” from the latest US retail sales and Producer Price inflation data...

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12 Mar 2024

Hotter US CPI taken in stride

• US CPI. US inflation slightly higher than expected. But markets were more prepared. Equities rose, & while bond yields ticked up, USD strength was minimal.• Details matter. Some of the US CPI strength likely to reverse. US Fed to remain cautious about rate cuts near-term, but that is already priced into markets.• AUD & JPY. AUD dipped a touch, & USD/JPY rose. Japan’s Rengo wage outcomes will impact BoJ expectations, USD/JPY & the broader USD. Market focus was on the latest US CPI inflation data overnight. US headline and core (i.e. ex food and energy) rose 0.4% in February...

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