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RBA nearing the end?

• ECB repricing. Hawkish comments reinforced expectations the ECB could raise rates aggressively over future meetings. This supported the EUR.• Fed in focus. US Fed Chair Powell speaks tonight. We think the run of US data should see Chair Powell reiterate that the Fed has more work to do.• Another RBA hike. RBA expected to raise rates another 25bps today. But will it tinker with its forward-looking policy guidance? A quiet start to the week, though there were some divergences across asset markets with the underlying theme of central banks continuing to raise rates to fight inflation still front-of-mind. Following...

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Currencies Stabilize As Pivotal Week Begins

Investors are bracing for a momentous week, with Jerome Powell’s Congressional testimony, three major central bank meetings, and the February non-farm payrolls report combining to set the stage for erratic price action in currency markets. The dollar is climbing, yields are ticking lower, and the euro and pound are tightly rangebound. Commodity-linked currencies sold off over the weekend as China’s leadership unveiled a more cautious growth agenda than had been expected. Work documents released during the National Party Congress outlined plans to increase state outlays and expand the budget deficit, but Beijing set its headline gross domestic product target at...

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China disappointment

• China targets. China’s 2023 growth target was a little lower than expected. Fiscal support also looks set to be more restrained than anticipated.• Risk sentiment. Equities rose on Friday, but the China developments, and ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from Fed Chair Powell could weigh on risk appetite this week.• AUD pressure. RBA widely expected to hike another 25bps. But we think there is a risk its forward-looking rate guidance is adjusted. Market attention remains on bond markets. The uptrend in global yields paused for breath on Friday, with the US 10yr falling by ~10bps to end the week back below 4%....

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Markets Rally on Mixed Fed Messaging

Markets are preparing to build on yesterday’s rally with further gains in today’s session. Equity futures are setting up for a stronger open, Treasury yields are lower across the curve, and commodity prices are up. The dollar is lower against all of its major counterparts. Media commentary yesterday suggested markets moved higher on dovish messaging from the Atlanta Fed’s (non voting) Raphael Bostic during a panel discussion hosted by the National Association for Business Economics – but we’re struggling to see evidence of a clear shift in positioning. Bostic did seem to anchor terminal rate expectations lower than market-implied levels...

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