Subscribe

Get insight into the latest trends and developments in global currency markets with breaking news updates and research reports delivered right to your inbox.

After signing up, you will receive regular newsletters from Corpay, and may unsubscribe at any time. View Corpay’s Privacy Policy

USD

26 Oct 2023

Wrong in all the right ways

“An economist,” said Laurence J. Peter*, “is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today”. Currency strategists are similar, but it usually takes only a few minutes to see our predictions go completely wrong. We’re not aware of anyone (economist or otherwise) who accurately forecast this morning’s 4.9-percent surge in third quarter gross domestic product back in July, yet we feel relatively confident in thinking that this outperformance won’t be repeated – and may even reverse – over the final three months of the year. Consumer spending growth through the summer months appears...

Read More Read More
26 Oct 2023

US growth doubles in third quarter as inflation subsides, positioning economy for soft landing

The American economy expanded more than expected in the third quarter, delivering booming growth even as soaring yields raised borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.  Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the economy expanding 4.9 percent in the July-through-September period, topping market consensus around 4.5 percent, and nearing the estimates provided by the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s nowcasting model.  Personal consumption surged 4 percent, marking the fastest pace since 2021 after rising just 0.8 percent in the second quarter. Residential investment broke a long series of losses in adding 0.15 percent, while non-residential fixed investment fell...

Read More Read More
26 Oct 2023

Price action slows into US growth data and European rate decision

The dollar is rising ahead of data that is likely to show the American economy expanding at a remarkably-aggressive pace in the third quarter, defying widespread expectations for a slowdown. Consensus estimates suggest this morning’s data will show output growing 4.7 percent in the third quarter, but the “whisper” number is considerably higher, nearing the 5 percent mark, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s “nowcasting” model is pointing to a 5.4-percent expansion. Anything in this range would serve to highlight the yawning performance gap between the US and its major counterparts, and would mark the latest in a long line of...

Read More Read More
25 Oct 2023

Minding the gap, traders buy the dollar

The dollar remains firm and Treasury yields are ticking higher after yesterday’s sentiment survey data highlighted a yawning performance gap between the American economy and its global counterparts. A series of purchasing manager indices released by S&P Global showed the US as the only major economy remaining in expansionary territory in early October, with composite measures for the euro area, UK, and Japan pointing to further contraction. We’re not sure the dollar will be acting as the only port in the storm for long. Under-the-hood details suggest inflation pressures are now running at levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s target,...

Read More Read More
24 Oct 2023

Australian inflation in focus

• Data trends. Divergence between the US & Europe weighed on EUR & GBP. The AUD held up against the firmer USD & outperformed on the crosses.• China stimulus. China will issue more debt to fund infrastructure projects. Supports our view that China’s economy has passed its cyclical bottom.• RBA & CPI. Gov. Bullock stressed the Board “will not hesitate” to lift rates again “if there is a material upward revision” to the inflation outlook. CPI released today. Following the bout of volatility induced by sharp swings in bond yields earlier this week markets calmed down overnight. Equities rose with...

Read More Read More

Corpay Currency Research

Contact Us

Data and information on this website is provided “as is” and for informational purposes only. Information on the website does not bind Corpay in any way; nor is it not intended as advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial products. Data and other information are not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and are subject to change without notice. All charts or graphs are from publicly available sources, or our proprietary data. Nothing in this material should be construed as investment, financial, tax, legal, accounting, regulatory or other advice or as creating a fiduciary relationship. Corpay disclaims any responsibility or liability to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, for any loss or damage arising from any reliance on our use of the data in any way. You should contact your Corpay sales representative for clarification on the range of financial instruments available in your jurisdiction. Copyright Cambridge Mercantile Corp. 2022.