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USD

09 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Directionless Markets Await Inflation Data

Equity futures are set for a weaker open, yields are higher, and exchange rates are milling about in a confused manner as liquidity ebbs ahead of tomorrow’s consumer price data. The dollar continues to unwind Friday’s gains. Oil prices are ratcheting higher after a report said Ukraine’s Ukrtransnafta last week halted flows across the Druzhba 1 pipeline that delivers Russian crude to Europe. A Bloomberg article quoted a Transneft spokesperson who said sanctions were preventing the payment of a transit fee to the pipeline’s operator. The West Texas Intermediate and Brent benchmarks are up roughly 1 percent each, but the...

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08 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Weakens as Markets Turn Wary

Markets seem to have remembered the most fundamental rule in finance this morning: If it’s too good to be true, it probably is. The dollar is falling and yields are coming under pressure as traders turn slightly more sceptical on the underlying details and near-term sustainability associated with Friday’s astonishingly-strong jobs numbers, with growth seen decelerating and employment rates expected to soften in coming months. Policy expectations are falling. Implied odds on a 75 basis point move at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting are holding near 68 percent, up from 40 percent prior to the release, but down relative to...

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05 Aug 2022

Market Wire: US Job Growth Smashes Expectations, Dollar Rises

528,000 jobs were created in the United States last month – far above expectations, and sufficient to compel a larger rate increase at the next Federal Reserve meeting. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent in July, and the participation rate moved down to 62.1 percent. Overall payroll employment has now exceeded pre-pandemic levels – hardly indicative of an economy toppling into recession. Average hourly earnings rose 0.5 percent month-over-month, accelerating from 0.3 percent in June. Ahead of the release, investors were positioned for a 250,000-job gain, with...

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05 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Hit Snooze Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls

Traders have set their alarm clocks a little later this morning, with most asset classes set to snore loudly until 8:30 am when the July non-farm payrolls report is released. Equity indices are flat on their backs, the commodities complex is sleeping in the fetal position, Treasury yields and the dollar are nestled under the covers, and most major currency pairs are spooning comfortably. This morning’s jobs number could be vital in setting near-term market direction. Investors expect the July non-farm payrolls report to function a little like Goldilocks’ porridge: If it is too hot, with more than 300,000 jobs...

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04 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Currency Volatility Subsides as Liquidity Conditions Erode

Currency markets are caught in the August doldrums this morning, with most major exchange rate pairs stuck in windless ranges as traders head out on summer vacations. Yields are flat and the dollar is moving almost imperceptibly as hawkish Federal Reserve officials engage in a tug of war with fearful investors, and risk-sensitive currencies are largely becalmed. Falling US gasoline demand is weighing on global crude benchmarks. Data released by the Energy Information Administration yesterday showed the four-week average of gasoline consumption had fallen 1 million barrels below pre-Covid levels for this time of year. West Texas Intermediate is trading...

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