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USD

13 Mar 2023

Everything, Everywhere, All At Once

Much like last night’s Oscar winner, the financial markets appear to be exploring every possibility in the multiverse this morning. Major equity indices are oscillating between gains and losses, global bond yields are plummeting, and currency markets are exhibiting flight-to-safety dynamics after authorities stepped in to unwind Silicon Valley Bank and backstop deposits across a US banking sector that is experiencing losses on its long-dated bond holdings. In a joint statement released before Asian trading began, the Federal Reserve, Treasury and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said that depositors in the collapsed institution would have access to their funds from today, with...

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12 Mar 2023

Contagion worries

• US bank woes. SVB developments are weighing on risk sentiment, with US yields falling sharply. The policymaker response is in focus.• Data flow. Another solid US labour report. US CPI and retail sales this week. If SVB is contained, fundamentals point to rate expectations snapping back.• AUD holding. AUD remains around ~$0.66. These are several US, global and Australia data points this week that should keep AUD volatility elevated. A bout of risk aversion is running through markets with the collapse of the US’ Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and its broader potential fallout, weighing on investors’ minds. The undoing...

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10 Mar 2023

North American Jobs Reports Top Expectations, But Dollar Falls as US Unemployment Rises

311,000 jobs were created in the United States last month, but wage gains decelerated and the unemployment rate jumped as more people entered the workforce – making a half percentage-point hike at the March Federal Reserve meeting marginally less likely. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the unemployment rate climbed to 3.6 percent in February, and the participation rate moved up to 62.5 percent from 62.4 in the prior month, indicating that some workers are coming off the sidelines. The previous two payroll prints were revised down by a combined 34,000. Average hourly earnings...

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10 Mar 2023

Contagion

A broad selloff in the US banking sector has wiped out billions of dollars in market value and is lowering expectations for rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The rout began when a rate-related decline in the value of bond holdings, paired with a related drop in technology-sector deposits, forced SVB Financial Group—parent of Silicon Valley Bank—to raise capital through a share sale and sell roughly $21 billion in securities at a loss. Its shares are down more than 79 percent from yesterday’s open, and the financial sector is receiving a pummelling across the board. Market-implied expectations for the Fed...

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09 Mar 2023

BoJ & US labour market in focus

• Shaky risk sentiment. Bond yields fall as some partial data points to a looming turn in the labour market. Equities also under pressure.• US labour report. Market reaction to the outcome should be binary. A strong (weak) result would boost (weigh) on the USD.• BoJ announcement. Will outgoing BoJ Governor Kuroda spring one last surprise? If he does, the JPY would strengthen. Our base case is for no change today. Although the economic news flow has been light, there were some notable market moves overnight, generated by lower tier US labour market data. In a break from the recent...

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