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USD

25 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Bulls Start Feeling A Little Hawkward

The greenback is retreating as bullish dollar sentiment softens ahead of tomorrow’s central bank meeting in Jackson Hole. Commodity-linked and high-beta currencies are climbing on the prospect of more stimulus from China, and the euro and pound are inching up on a broader sense of optimism – even as benchmark European energy prices break new records. Mr. Powell is expected to outline a policy path that takes rates into restrictive territory and keeps them there as the central bank responds to post-pandemic shifts in the global economy. In keeping with the academic nature of the conference, he is likely to...

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24 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Slowing US Economy Weighs on Dollar

The dollar is holding steady after yesterday’s data showing a slowing in momentum across the world’s biggest economy. Business activity fell further into contractionary territory in early August, according to S&P’s composite purchasing managers index, which showed a second month of weakness in manufacturing and the all-important services sector. Data from the Census Bureau showed new-home sales falling to an annualized 511,000 in July – the lowest in six years, and well below expectations for a 575,000 gain. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected shrug this off in Jackson Hole on Friday, saying that the economy remains strong, with...

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23 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Steamrolls Rivals Ahead of Powell Speech

Global markets are bowing before the almighty dollar once more as investors brace for Friday’s central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Every major US equity index ended yesterday in the red, commodities are down again, and risk-sensitive currencies are in retreat. Markets think Mr. Powell will assert the Federal Reserve’s intent to lift rates into restrictive territory – and keep them at those levels – in Friday’s speech. Terminal Fed Funds expectations have shot up from 3.25 percent in late July to 3.75 percent now, and implied rate cuts have fallen by more than a third as investors have...

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22 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Expectations for Jackson Hole Ramp Up Amid Late-August Trading Lull

With anticipation building in markets ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole on Friday, the dollar is trading near a five-week high, short term Treasury yields are up, and equity futures are tumbling. Investors expect the Federal Reserve chair to tilt against the recent loosening in financial conditions, emphasizing the central bank’s willingness to hit the economic brakes as it works to bring inflation under control. But “there is no terror in the bang,” as Alfred Hitchcock put it, “only in the anticipation of it”. Mr. Powell will almost certainly acknowledge signs of slowing economic momentum and is unlikely...

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19 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Jumps Into the Hole

Traders are cutting risk and buying the dollar going into the holiest of holies on the central bank calendar – the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Treasury yields are rising, equity futures are dropping, and the trade-weighted greenback is up roughly 0.3 percent as markets position ahead of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s speech next Friday morning. Mr. Powell is widely expected to argue against the arguably-premature loosening in financial conditions that has occurred since the July meeting, attempting to better align market forecasts with the central bank’s own terminal rate projections. This is unlikely to drive a...

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