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19 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Currency Markets Trade Sideways as Yields Creep Higher

Volatility expectations are inching back up, Treasury yields are climbing, and the dollar is firming as central bank officials keep making hawkish noises. Rate differentials tilted further in the greenback’s favour and terminal expectations moved higher during yesterday’s session after Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said rate hikes wouldn’t pause until core inflation subsides, and said “I don’t see why I would advocate stopping at 4.5 percent or 4.75 percent or something like that”. The pound is down more than half a percent after an inflation report showed prices rising 10.1 percent in the year to September, higher than the...

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18 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Shows (Tentative) Signs of Exhaustion

The dollar bull is looking tired, but is not ready yet to keel over. With idiosyncratic issues hitting the yen and yuan, losses in the trade-weighted greenback still look relatively modest, but an improvement in global risk appetite is helping the pound, euro, and high-beta currencies inch higher ahead of the North American equity market open—and weakness could become more entrenched as signs of a maturing rate cycle begin to emerge against a sparse data backdrop. The pound is trading within a consolidative range, with yesterday’s wholesale reversal of the government’s fiscal plans continuing to offer support – even as...

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17 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Truss Turnabout Bolsters Sentiment

Risk-sensitive assets are staging a mild recovery this morning after the UK government said it would shelve a package of unfunded fiscal measures that had triggered alarm in gilt and global funding markets. Equity indices are setting up for a stronger open and the ten-year US Treasury yield is pushing back below 4 percent, providing relief across the financial system. The dollar is weaker, and commodity linked units are rising on the crosses as traders hesitantly tiptoe back into still-turbulent foreign exchange markets. The pound jumped and gilt yields fell after new chancellor Jeremy Hunt reversed virtually all of his...

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14 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Risk Sentiment Worsens After Rollercoaster Inflation Reaction

Data released yesterday showed core inflation hitting a four-decade high, bolstering the case for more aggressive action from the Federal Reserve. Odds on back-to-back three-quarter-point hikes at the November and December meetings jumped, and terminal rate expectations climbed close to 5.25 percent – well above the 4.6 percent forecast provided by central bankers in September. The initial reaction in equity and foreign exchange markets aligned with tighter policy expectations. Major indices tumbled and the dollar rose. But a profound reversal began by mid-morning, with stock markets and risk-sensitive currencies whipping upward, sending the S&P 500 to a 2.6-percent daily gain....

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13 Oct 2022

Market Wire: Core Inflation Accelerates More Than Anticipated, Raising Rate Expectations

Core US consumer prices climbed by more than expected in September, hitting a four-decade high as inflation pressures broadened across most services sectors. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 8.2 percent in September from the same period last year, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis. Economists polled by major data providers ahead of the release expected an 8.1 percent annual gain and a 0.2 percent increase relative to August. A -2.1 percent month-over-month drop in energy prices — helped by an -4.9 percent tumble in the gasoline...

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