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USD

31 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Global Selloff Continues, Driving Dollar Higher

A terrible, horrible, no good, very bad summer in markets is coming to an ignominious end. The dollar is nearing its mid-July peak and Treasury yields are climbing after three consecutive days of selling contrived to crush a mid-August rally on global stock bourses. Evidence of an economic slowdown is dissipating, fast. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said yesterday there were 11.2 million unfilled jobs in the US last month, amounting to two openings for each unemployed person. The Conference Board reported a sharp improvement in consumer confidence, with households saying they plan to buy more big-ticket items in the...

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30 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Slips as Cross-Asset Selling Pressure Subsides

Futures are up and yields on two- and ten-year Treasuries are easing, raising hopes of a market reversal after two days of bruising losses. The dollar is weaker, down roughly 0.3 percent on a trade-weighted basis, signalling an end to a safe haven rally sparked by Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s aggressively-hawkish speech on Friday. The euro is lifting itself off the floor on positive developments in power markets. Benchmark electricity and natural gas contracts dropped again today as European Union officials mooted a plan to intervene in markets, instituting price caps across the energy value chain. Prices plunged yesterday after...

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29 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Post-Powell Reaction Continues to Lift the Dollar

Risk-sensitive assets are tumbling and the trade-weighted dollar is pushing toward last month’s peak in the wake of Jerome Powell’s “higher for longer” message on Friday. In an elegantly brief and blunt speech at Jackson Hole, the Federal Reserve Chair said “restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time,” warning this would “bring some pain to households and businesses,” while acknowledging that the “historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy”. After a summer slumber, bears are reawakening. Equity futures are pointing to another day of selling, the ten-year Treasury yield is nudging 3.1...

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26 Aug 2022

Market Wire: US Consumer Spending and Inflation Measures Decelerate On Dropping Gas Prices, Dollar Ticks Lower

American households slowed spending last month as falling gasoline prices helped offset an increase in services outlays – and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure rose by less than expected. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed inflation-adjusted household outlays climbing 0.2 percent in July – roughly corresponding with a previously-reported flatlining in retail sales. A $33.3 billion increase in spending on services was partly offset by a $9.6 billion drop in spending on goods, with energy costs dragging the number down. In unadjusted terms, personal income rose 0.2 percent month-over-month, led by a solid 0.8...

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26 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Slips as Traders Prepare for One Last Summer Squall

Across the financial markets, traders are battening down the hatches in preparation for a stormy reaction to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole later this morning. Ten-year Treasury yields are up, equity indices are returning some of yesterday’s gains. The dollar is trading on a slightly weaker footing – up against the pound and the Mexican peso, down against the euro, yen, yuan, and loonie. Traders think Powell will reiterate a data-dependent policy stance, leaving expectations for the September meeting essentially unmoved. Although the Fed chair’s thoughts on current economic conditions will be carefully analyzed, there will...

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