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Market Briefing: Markets Flatline Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls

Currency traders are treading cautiously ahead of a non-farm payrolls report that is expected to show the US job creation engine beginning to cool, but still running far too hot for the Federal Reserve. With high inflation and ever-rising interest rates weighing on economic activity, markets think roughly 250,000 new positions were created last month, down sharply from the 440,000 average in the first half, even as the unemployment rate holds near a historically-low 3.7 percent. Data released yesterday morning showed initial jobless claims jumping to a seasonally-adjusted 219,000 last week from a revised 190,000 in the prior week –...

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Market Briefing: Trading Ranges Shrink Ahead of Non-Farms

Equity futures are weaker and currency market trading volumes are down as investors contemplate higher inflation risks – while bracing for tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report. Oil prices are stabilizing around higher levels after gaining sharply in the last week. The North American benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, is trading for $87 a barrel while its global equivalent, Brent, is holding near $93 after the OPEC+ group of producing countries agreed to cut output by a larger-than-expected 2 million barrels a day. Because most members are already failing to meet targets, the number of barrels removed is likely to be far smaller,...

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Market Briefing: Hopes for Policy Pivot Fade, Dollar Rebounds

Hopes for a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve and other major central banks are getting snuffed out in markets, forcing a broad-based unwind in risk-sensitive asset classes. Treasury yields are climbing, equity futures are setting up for a weaker session after the biggest two-day gain in more than two years, commodity prices are down, and the dollar is back in fine form, clobbering its major rivals as it moves higher. The euro, pound, yen, and yuan are all sliding as as traders cut risk heading into this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report and next week’s inflation data. We remain convinced...

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Market Briefing: Markets Kick Higher on Falling Policy Forecasts

Markets are roaring into the fourth quarter as investors downgrade expectations for rate hikes from developed-market central banks. US equity futures are set for a strong open after yesterday’s rally, yields are coming down, and risk-sensitive currencies are outperforming the dollar in the foreign exchange space. Australia’s central bank surprised markets by lifting interest rates less than expected, saying “The cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period of time. Reflecting this, the Board decided to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points this month as it assesses the outlook for inflation and economic growth in Australia”....

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Market Briefing: Markets Tiptoe Into October

With traders and investors suffering from a kind of post-traumatic stress syndrome after a brutal September, markets are cautiously edging higher this morning. North American equity indices are pointing to a stronger open, commodity benchmarks are finding their feet, and economically-sensitive currencies like the Canadian dollar are climbing back from Friday’s selloff. The dollar is slightly softer, but remains strong after the Federal Reserve’s favoured inflation measure showed no evidence of deceleration. According to data released on Friday, the core personal consumption expenditures deflator climbed 0.6 percent in August, suggesting that underlying price pressures continue to grow even as gasoline...

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