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USD

04 Apr 2023

RBA: over and out

In what we think was a somewhat finely balanced decision the RBA finally ‘paused’ its rate hiking cycle at the April meeting. After raising rates aggressively since kicking things off in May 2022 (the RBA delivered a cumulative 350bps worth of hikes over the previous 10 meetings, the fastest and most abrupt tightening cycle since at least the 1980s), the RBA kept the cash rate steady at 3.6% for the second straight month. While the RBA held firm in April it has kept the door open to doing more down the track. However, further moves have become far more contingent...

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03 Apr 2023

The AUD’s energy price boost

• Oil spike. OPEC+ production cuts has seen oil prices lift. Oil sensitive currencies like the AUD, CAD, and NOK have outperformed.• USD lower. A weak US ISM manufacturing survey reinforced recession worries. US bond yields reversed course and this weighed on the USD.• AUD lift off. The terms of trade boost from higher energy prices has supported the AUD. RBA meets today. It is a close call, but we think the RBA will pause. A somewhat volatile start to the week for financial markets as investors digested the surprise weekend news that OPEC+ was cutting back oil production and...

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02 Apr 2023

Will the OPEC+ cuts reignite inflation worries?

• Positive vibes. Equities ended the week on a positive footing. Lower headline inflation in Europe and the US supported risk appetite. But core inflation, the focus for policymakers, remains high.• OPEC+ cuts. Weekend news the OPEC+ group is cutting production could reignite inflation concerns, and dampen risk sentiment early in the week.• AUD RBA focus. Will the RBA pause at tomorrow’s meeting? On net we think it will, but it is likely to be a closer call than many now think. Risk assets had another relatively positive session on Friday, with another day of no new negative news on...

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31 Mar 2023

US Inflation Moderates, Canadian Economy Grows More Than Expected

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure missed expectations in February, weakening the case for another hike at the central bank’s May meeting. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by the Fed – rising 0.3 percent in February from the prior month, up 4.6 percent year-over-year – coming in slightly below consensus estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index was up 5 percent from a year ago. Personal income rose 0.3 percent month-over-month, decelerating from January’s Social Security-boosted 0.6-percent gain. Incomes were 6.2 percent higher relative to the same month...

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31 Mar 2023

Out Like a Lamb

The month of March is set to end on a quieter note as banking concerns ease, the dollar stabilizes, and volatility measures subside. Treasury yields are steady ahead of new consumer spending data and an update in the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, equity futures are strengthening, and risk-sensitive currencies are edging higher – suggesting that investors could be positioning for a generalized bear market bounce in early April. Mexico’s peso remains relatively unmoved after the Banxico delivered a widely-expected rate hike and shifted its forward guidance in a firmly data-dependent direction. After telegraphing the intention to do so at last month’s...

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