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14 Feb 2023

Roses are Red, Violets are Blue, We’re Watching Inflation, and You Should Too

Happy inflation day to all of you hopeless romantics out there. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release its consumer price index for January at 8:30 am. Economists think price growth will cool for a seventh consecutive month, with the headline measure increasing 6.2% year-over-year, down from 6.5% in December, and well below the 9.1% pace hit in June. The core measure is seen rising 5.4%, maintaining the prior month’s momentum. Markets seem comfortable with these expectations. Signs of nervousness disappeared over yesterday’s session, leaving equity futures up, Treasury yields down, and the dollar on the defensive. But...

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13 Feb 2023

Traders Brace for Inflation Data

Global financial markets are growing increasingly nervous ahead of tomorrow’s US inflation report. The dollar is up, yields are inching higher, and equities are down. Implied volatility levels are slightly elevated, and risk-sensitive currencies like the Canadian dollar are on the defensive.  Today’s data calendar is light, with the Federal Reserve’s Michelle Bowman discussing topics unrelated to monetary policy, and Japan reporting fourth quarter gross domestic product.  January’s consumer price index update could prove destabilizing for markets that have spent much of the last four months betting on a rapid easing in inflation pressures. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is...

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10 Feb 2023

Currency Market Sub-Plots Lift Greenback

The dollar is creeping upward as conflicting cross-currents in the foreign exchange markets contrive to keep most majors tightly rangebound. Yields are broadly flat, and equity futures are setting up for a slightly weaker open. Mexico’s Banxico yesterday became the second central bank—after the Reserve Bank of Australia—to defy increasingly-dovish policy expectations, sending the peso soaring by raising rates by half a percentage point in a move that surprised virtually every observer. In a statement accompanying the decision, policymakers said “Given the dynamics of core inflation, on this occasion it is necessary to continue with the magnitude of the reference...

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09 Feb 2023

Bond Market Signals

Fairly modest moves across markets overnight, though the underlying themes of participants reassessing the outlook for how high interest rates could go, how long central banks may need to keep them there to squash inflation, and concerns about what the economic impacts could be continuing to bubble to the surface. The US S&P500 drifted back again (-0.9%) as US bond yields rose ~6bps across the curve. The USD index has range traded over the past few sessions, but in level terms it is still up near a 1-month high. EUR is down near 1.0730, USD/JPY is up around 131.60, and the...

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09 Feb 2023

Mexican Peso Surges on Surprise Rate Hike

Surprise 50 basis point rate hike from Banxico this afternoon – widened the yield differential against the dollar, and kicked the peso higher. More here: Bloomberg: Mexico Stuns Markets With Half-Point Rate Hike on New Inflation Gain

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