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USD

21 Feb 2023

Silent night

Unsurprisingly, with the US President’s Day holiday and no major news across the other regions, it has been a quiet start to the week. European equities eased back slightly, tracking the modest falls in US S&P500 futures (now -0.3%) with the US Fed’s higher-for-longer interest rate outlook continuing to sink in. European bond yields ticked up 2-5bps across their respective curves, with some ‘hawkish’ comments from the ECB’s Rehn playing a role. According to Rehn inflation is “excessively high”, further rate hikes by the ECB beyond March seem “logical”, and the bank shouldn’t rush to start discussing rate cuts. The...

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17 Feb 2023

Almighty Dollar Reigns Supreme

The greenback is reading its own obituary once again, defying early January’s almost-universally bearish sentiment to surge toward a six-week trade-weighted high. Data released yesterday showed initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 194,000 last week, pushing the four-week average to 189,500. Despite widespread fears of a slowdown, employers continue to add jobs at a pace consistent with strong economic growth, and laid-off workers are finding new roles quickly. This comes on top of a slew of data releases that point to robust growth and strong underlying inflation pressures in the US economy. Employers added more than half...

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16 Feb 2023

Financial Conditions Tighten on Still-Robust US Consumer Demand

The three trading rules which have dominated for decades apparently remain intact: don’t fight the Fed, don’t bet against the dollar, and never, ever underestimate the US consumer. Retail sales rose at the fastest pace in two years in January, providing more evidence that aggregate demand in the American economy isn’t slowing as much as the Federal Reserve might prefer. Overall retail receipts climbed a seasonally adjusted 3 percent in January, snapping back from declines in November and December as consumers spent more on cars, clothing, and eating out. This comes after earlier reports showing that more than half a...

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15 Feb 2023

Risk Appetite Weakens as Pivot Hopes Fade

A sense of caution is settling over financial markets this morning, with North American equity futures setting up for a weaker open, commodities under pressure, Treasury yields rising, and the dollar in recovery mode. Markets went on a bit of a drunkard’s walk after yesterday’s print. Risk sensitive assets rallied in the moments after the release as investors found their worst fears had not been realized, but then seemed to fall as stubbornly-strong services prices lowered the likelihood of a meaningful Fed pivot in the months ahead. Oscillations continued throughout the day as position adjustments unfolded and traders struggled to...

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14 Feb 2023

Well-Prepared Markets Absorb Signs of Accelerating Inflation

US consumer prices rose by slightly more than forecast in January, but markets are reacting well – suggesting that expectations had climbed and risk had been sufficiently trimmed ahead of the release. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 6.4% in January from the same period last year, up 0.5% on a month-over-month basis. Economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release projected a 6.2% annual gain and a 0.5% jump relative to December. A seasonally-adjusted 2.4 percent month-over-month gain in gasoline prices partially offset a...

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