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USD

14 Mar 2023

Buckle up, volatility should continue

Markets have hit an air pocket, with bonds in particular experiencing some extreme moves over recent days in reaction to the unfolding US regional banking situation. In our mind, the rather forceful emergency support measures unveiled yesterday by the US FDIC, Fed, and Treasury should help contain broader financial contagion risks. That said, while this should be somewhat of a short-term circuit breaker, and suggests that the scale and speed of the adjustment in some markets like bonds and the USD may be overdone, it doesn’t necessarily mean all is right in the world and that further market ructions shouldn’t...

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13 Mar 2023

Radical Rate Repricing

• Bond yield plunge. Extreme moves in bonds with US yields falling sharply (2yr down another ~60bps) as the Fed rate outlook is radically repriced.• Weaker USD. The adjustment has weighed on the USD. AUD is higher, though it is little changed on the crosses, illustrating how USD-centric it has been.• US CPI. Markets may have moved too far when it comes to Fed expectations. US CPI released tonight, another strong result could generate more volatility. The turmoil stemming from the US regional banking issues has continued despite efforts from authorities to try and contain contagion and macroeconomic risks. In...

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13 Mar 2023

Everything, Everywhere, All At Once

Much like last night’s Oscar winner, the financial markets appear to be exploring every possibility in the multiverse this morning. Major equity indices are oscillating between gains and losses, global bond yields are plummeting, and currency markets are exhibiting flight-to-safety dynamics after authorities stepped in to unwind Silicon Valley Bank and backstop deposits across a US banking sector that is experiencing losses on its long-dated bond holdings. In a joint statement released before Asian trading began, the Federal Reserve, Treasury and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said that depositors in the collapsed institution would have access to their funds from today, with...

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12 Mar 2023

Contagion worries

• US bank woes. SVB developments are weighing on risk sentiment, with US yields falling sharply. The policymaker response is in focus.• Data flow. Another solid US labour report. US CPI and retail sales this week. If SVB is contained, fundamentals point to rate expectations snapping back.• AUD holding. AUD remains around ~$0.66. These are several US, global and Australia data points this week that should keep AUD volatility elevated. A bout of risk aversion is running through markets with the collapse of the US’ Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and its broader potential fallout, weighing on investors’ minds. The undoing...

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10 Mar 2023

North American Jobs Reports Top Expectations, But Dollar Falls as US Unemployment Rises

311,000 jobs were created in the United States last month, but wage gains decelerated and the unemployment rate jumped as more people entered the workforce – making a half percentage-point hike at the March Federal Reserve meeting marginally less likely. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the unemployment rate climbed to 3.6 percent in February, and the participation rate moved up to 62.5 percent from 62.4 in the prior month, indicating that some workers are coming off the sidelines. The previous two payroll prints were revised down by a combined 34,000. Average hourly earnings...

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