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USD

30 Apr 2023

All eyes on the central banks

• Mixed signals. Eurozone data undershoots, while the US Employment Cost Index indicates inflation pressures remain strong. China manufacturing PMI dips back into ‘contractionary’ territory.• Central banks in focus. US Fed and ECB expected to hike rates again later this week. We think there are ‘hawkish’ risks given the inflation pulse.• AUD & the RBA. We are forecasting the RBA to remain on hold once again. Weaker China data and diverging policy trends are AUD headwinds. A positive end to April for risk markets with US equity indices rising by 0.7-0.8% on Friday on the back of solid earnings reports,...

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27 Apr 2023

BoJ & US data in focus

• Improved sentiment. Equities & bond yields higher overnight. The more upbeat risk appetite has supported the AUD in otherwise quiet FX markets.• US data flow. Topline US GDP growth undershot forecasts, but this was because of inventories. Price measures remain high. The ECI & PCE deflator due tonight. The US Fed still has more work to do to tame inflation.• BoJ in focus. Inflation & wage pressures in Japan are building. It appears inevitable the BoJ shifts course. Could the first steps be taken today? Sentiment improved overnight, with equities and bond yields higher. In the US, the S&P500...

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26 Apr 2023

AUD struggles

• Ongoing concerns. Banking issues remain in the US, while various indicators like the copper price point to a sharp slowdown in global growth.• AUD under pressure. Global backdrop compounded by softer Q1 Australian CPI. We expect the RBA to hold steady again at next week’s meeting.• US data in focus. US Q1 GDP released tonight, while the Employment Cost Index and PCE deflator are due tomorrow. Sentiment across markets continues to have a negative vibe. Banking sector concerns and growth worries remain front of mind. Outside of the US tech-focused NASDAQ, which was boosted by robust earnings from a...

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26 Apr 2023

Markets Lick Wounds After Bank-Related Selloff

With First Republic Bank shares recovering ground even as a rescue looks increasingly plausible, regional lender indices are climbing, and yesterday’s slow-motion flight to safety is unwinding across the financial markets. With renewed troubles in the banking sector seen reducing the Federal Reserve’s room for manoeuvre, yields are under pressure across the front end of the curve, and the dollar is falling back after posting its biggest daily gain since early March. The pound and euro are steamrolling higher on improved rate differentials, while the credit condition-sensitive Canadian dollar is struggling to lift itself off the mat after yesterday’s bruising defeat....

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26 Apr 2023

Inflation breathing space for the RBA

On net, the Q1 Australian CPI underwhelmed expectations, with the data confirming that inflation, which is the rate of change in consumer prices, ‘peaked’ at the end of 2022. In terms of the numbers, headline inflation stepped down from 7.8%pa to 7.0%pa. While this was slightly less than what the consensus of economists was factoring in, it was below the RBA’s February 2023 projections (mkt 6.9%pa, RBA ~7.3%pa). At the same time, trimmed mean (the RBA’s preferred core inflation gauge) eased a bit more than anticipated, slowing from 6.9%pa to 6.6%pa (mkt and RBA ~6.7%pa). A closer look at the...

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