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USD

15 Jun 2023

AUD: break-out or bull-trap?

After a rather torrid May, the AUD has sprung back to life over the past few weeks. At ~$0.6820 the AUD is around the top of its ~4-month range. The AUD has also outperformed on the crosses. AUD/EUR is near its highest level since mid-March, AUD/GBP has moved above its 50-day moving average (~0.5341), diverging interest rate and macro trends have propelled AUD/NZD over ~1.10 for the first time since late-February, AUD/CNH has touched a ~2-year high, and AUD/JPY is north of ~96 (heights it hasn’t been at since last September). There has been raft of important economic events and...

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14 Jun 2023

Fed’s ‘hawkish’ skip

• US Fed. Rates kept on hold, but the Fed’s message was ‘hawkish’. Fed is forecasting another ~50bps of hikes this year. Market pricing looks too low.• Intra-day volatility. Markets whipped around by the Fed decision. US retail sales & jobless claims tonight. Data could influence Fed expectations & the USD.• AUD events. Australian labour force & China activity data released today. ECB policy meeting is tonight with another 25bp rate hike expected. Markets whipped around overnight, with the US Fed policy decision and Chair Powell’s press conference in focus. As was broadly expected, after hiking interest rates aggressively over...

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14 Jun 2023

Federal Reserve pauses, warns more tightening is likely

The Federal Reserve’s policy committee left benchmark rates unchanged this afternoon – but put the conditions in place for a hike in July, broadly matching market expectations for a “skip” in the central bank’s monetary tightening trajectory. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting in Washington, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate to 5.00-to-5.25 percent, with no dissents in favour of a smaller or larger move. In the – broadly unchanged – official statement setting out the decision, policymakers said “Holding the target range steady at this meeting allows the Committee...

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14 Jun 2023

Risk appetites improve as Fed meeting looms

Risk-sensitive currencies are on the march and the dollar is retreating after US inflation cooled in May, reducing the impetus for tighter monetary policy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday said headline prices climbed 4 percent in the year through May, down sharply from 4.9 percent in April and well below the 9.1-percent peak reached last June. The so-called “supercore” measure – which excludes highly-volatile food, energy, goods, and housing prices – climbed just 0.24 percent month over month, broadly in line with long-term pre-pandemic averages. Markets are firmly positioned for a “hawkish hold” in this afternoon’s Federal Reserve meeting....

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