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Weekly Chartbook, January 24

The Bank of Canada set the stage for rate cuts. 

Overnight Index Swap-implied change in policy rate, %

US growth and rate expectations keep rising.

Consensus 2024 gross domestic product growth forecasts, %

But other economies might be bottoming. 

Composite purchasing manager indices, >50 = expansion, <50 = contraction

ECB policymakers will likely punt rate cuts to June.

M3 Money Supply, Adjusted Loans to Households, Adjusted Loans to Non-Financial Corporations, 12-month % change, NSA

Inflation could impact March rate cut odds, moving the dollar.

Implied likelihood of a March rate cut v. USDCAD exchange rate

Dollar Juggernaut Gains Momentum
1 day ago
Strong Payrolls Report Reignites Dollar Rally
4 days ago
Bond Market Turmoil Eases, Dollar Edges Lower
5 days ago
Tariff and Inflation Worries Kick Yields and the Dollar Higher
6 days ago
Tariff Threat Aftershocks Leave Currency Markets Jittery
1 week ago
Potential Dilution in Trump Tariff Plans Pummels Dollar
1 week ago

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Dollar Juggernaut Gains Momentum
13 January, 2025
The almighty greenback is trading near a two-year high after Friday’s non-farm payrolls report reinforced expectations for a prolonged pause in the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle. When measured against a basket of its most widely-traded counterparts, the dollar is at its strongest levels since November 2022, supported by ten-year Treasury yields that are inexorably moving closer to the 5 percent threshold...
Strong Payrolls Report Reignites Dollar Rally
10 January, 2025
The US created more jobs than expected in December, putting renewed momentum behind Treasury yields and the dollar. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 256,000 jobs were added in the month—solidly topping the 165,000-position consensus forecast—and the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent, suggesting that underlying labour market conditions remained strong. November’s...
Bond Market Turmoil Eases, Dollar Edges Lower
09 January, 2025
A multi-day selloff in global bond markets appears to be easing, providing some support to currencies outside the United States. The US ten-year yield is holding near 4.65 percent this morning after breaking through 4.72 percent in yesterday’s session, and rates are easing across most major economies, helping the euro, yen, and Canadian dollar stabilise against the dollar. A series of better-than-expected...
Tariff and Inflation Worries Kick Yields and the Dollar Higher
08 January, 2025
Bond yields and the greenback are sitting on substantial gains this morning on the back of a report suggesting that the US could apply universal tariffs on its major trading partners, and after data released yesterday seemed to bolster the case for a slowing in the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, triggering a pullback in market bets on rate cuts. The benchmark ten-year Treasury yield is sitting near...
Tariff Threat Aftershocks Leave Currency Markets Jittery
07 January, 2025
Currency markets are suffering a case of whiplash after Donald Trump yesterday denied a report saying that his aides were exploring plans to implement a narrower set of tariffs than had been promised on the campaign trail. The article in the Washington Post, which suggested that the incoming administration would impose selective rather than universal tariffs, triggered a 1-percent drop in the dollar,...
Potential Dilution in Trump Tariff Plans Pummels Dollar
06 January, 2025
As the curtain rises on 2025, the dollar is tumbling on a report suggesting that incoming US president Donald Trump will ultimately implement tariffs on a much narrower set of products than he had threatened on the campaign trail. According to the Washington Post, advisors to the president-elect are preparing plans to impose import taxes on goods deemed critical to national or economic security—products...
Markets Retreat as Threat Environment Worsens
20 December, 2024
Markets are dressed in red for all the wrong reasons this morning. Most major currencies are down against the dollar on a month- and year-to-date basis as increasingly-hawkish policy expectations intersect with safe-haven demand ahead of a likely shutdown of the US federal government. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near a six-month high at 5.54 percent, North American equity futures are pointing...
Central bank divergence
19 December, 2024
• Calm down. A sense of calm returned overnight. US equities consolidated & the US yield curve steepened. USD held its ground. AUD ticked up a little.• Central banks. BoE kept rates steady but kept door open to more easing. BoJ more ‘dovish’ than expected. GBP & especially JPY underperformed.• Event radar. Japan CPI, US PCE deflator, & appearances by Fed members in focus today....
“Bad Santa” Shock Hits Markets
19 December, 2024
This year’s Santa rally came with a Fed clause. Markets are recovering, but remain in turmoil after officials at the world’s most powerful central bank turned far more hawkish on the year ahead than almost anyone had expected even as they lowered benchmark interest rates for a third consecutive time. The dollar is trading near a post-2022 peak, ten-year Treasury yields are holding at seven month highs...
Markets Brace for Fed's "Hawkish Cut"
18 December, 2024
Financial markets are treading water this morning ahead of the year’s last Federal Reserve decision. US Treasury yields and the dollar are holding in narrow trading ranges, equity markets are pushing higher, and commodity prices are moving sideways. Market participants are nearly unanimous in expecting the Fed to deliver a “hawkish cut” this afternoon. After a series of data releases showing labour...

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