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Weekly Chartbook, January 24

The Bank of Canada set the stage for rate cuts. 

Overnight Index Swap-implied change in policy rate, %

US growth and rate expectations keep rising.

Consensus 2024 gross domestic product growth forecasts, %

But other economies might be bottoming. 

Composite purchasing manager indices, >50 = expansion, <50 = contraction

ECB policymakers will likely punt rate cuts to June.

M3 Money Supply, Adjusted Loans to Households, Adjusted Loans to Non-Financial Corporations, 12-month % change, NSA

Inflation could impact March rate cut odds, moving the dollar.

Implied likelihood of a March rate cut v. USDCAD exchange rate

Trading Ranges Shrink As Fed Decision Looms
16 hours ago
US Retail Sales Climb, Canadian Inflation Slows More Than Expected
1 day ago
Currency Markets Turn Jittery Ahead of Fed
1 day ago
Second Trump Assassination Attempt Leaves Markets Unruffled
2 days ago
Dollar Retreats As Fed Pricing Shifts
5 days ago
Currencies Stabilise As Fed Expectations Retrace
6 days ago

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Trading Ranges Shrink As Fed Decision Looms
18 September, 2024
Happy Fed Day to all who observe. With hours to go before the world’s most powerful central bank delivers its first post-pandemic rate cut, investors still have no clarity on how big it will be. The dollar is flat, Treasury yields are little changed, and North American equity indices are setting up for modestly-stronger open, as market participants cut risk into what could be characterised as the most...
US Retail Sales Climb, Canadian Inflation Slows More Than Expected
17 September, 2024
US retail spending climbed last month, suggesting that underlying consumer demand continues to play a supportive role in powering growth – but gains were somewhat mixed below the headline level, suggesting that Federal Reserve officials are likely to downplay its accuracy in depicting underlying fundamentals ahead of tomorrow’s decision. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this...
Currency Markets Turn Jittery Ahead of Fed
17 September, 2024
Markets are caught in an uneasy equilibrium as the Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting. The dollar is changing hands at its weakest levels since January, the Japanese yen is retreating from yesterday’s high, both the euro and pound are consolidating their gains, and emerging market currencies are broadly on the defensive as traders cut risk into tomorrow’s decision. The scale of tomorrow’s...
Second Trump Assassination Attempt Leaves Markets Unruffled
16 September, 2024
Financial markets are calm and there are no signs of a resurgence in the ‘Trump trade’ after Secret Service agents fired on a gunman at the former president’s Florida golf course. Prediction markets are still showing Kamala Harris holding a slight lead in the race to become the next US president, and assets that might benefit from a policy mix defined by tighter immigration, looser regulations, greater...
Dollar Retreats As Fed Pricing Shifts
13 September, 2024
Volatility is reverting lower across the financial markets, even as investors swerve between opposing viewpoints on what the Federal Reserve will do next week. The dollar is back on the defensive, Treasury yields are slipping, equity futures are setting up for a modestly-positive open, and oil prices are climbing. Odds on an outsized kickoff to the central bank’s easing cycle climbed yesterday after...
Currencies Stabilise As Fed Expectations Retrace
12 September, 2024
Markets are recovering their footing after slipping on a banana peel early in yesterday’s session. August’s consumer price reading landed very close to economist expectations on a headline level, but a surprise monthly acceleration in the core measure spooked investors, triggering a surge in the dollar and a rout in equity markets and risk-sensitive currencies. Rationality eventually returned, but...
Dollar Jumps on Hotter-Than-Anticipated Core Inflation Print
11 September, 2024
Consumer price growth accelerated slightly in the United States last month, threatening to derail a more aggressive kickoff to the Federal Reserve’s imminent easing cycle. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 0.3 percent in August from the same period last year,...
Dollar Retreats as Trump's Odds Slip
11 September, 2024
Financial markets are in relief mode this morning after Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris for president, reducing demand for hedges against a rally in the dollar or a resumption in trade war hostilities. The greenback is reversing its three-day rally, short-end Treasury yields are declining, and North American equity indices are retreating ahead of the open. In related news, Harris managed to flip...
USD bouncing back
09 September, 2024
• Shaky sentiment. A bit of a rebound in risk sentiment overnight following more turbulence on Friday after the US jobs report & Fed comments.• Market swings. US yields near bottom of their range. USD has recovered some ground, while the NZD & AUD have lost altitude.• Event radar. US Pres. debate (Weds), US CPI (Weds), & ECB meeting (Thurs) in focus this week. Will the USD’s revival...
Mean Reversion Dominates Markets After Inconclusive Jobs Report
09 September, 2024
Friday’s non-farm payrolls report failed to definitively settle the debate over the size of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut. Markets initially added to bets on a plus-sized move after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a slower-than-anticipated pace of job creation through July and August, but soon reversed on evidence of underlying stability in labour markets – the unemployment rate...

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