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Weekly Chartbook, January 22

US growth and rate expectations keep rising.

Consensus 2024 gross domestic product growth forecasts, %

The greenback could pop on a Trump victory in New Hampshire.

1-year implied option volatility, at-the-money, 21-day moving average

ECB policymakers will likely punt rate cuts to June.

M3 Money Supply, Adjusted Loans to Households, Adjusted Loans to Non-Financial Corporations, 12-month % change, NSA

Inflation might impact March rate cut odds, moving the dollar.

Implied likelihood of a March rate cut v. exchange rates

Markets have pulled easing expectations back, but the Bank of Canada setup remains dovish. 

Overnight Index Swap-implied change in policy rate, %

Last year’s easing in financial conditions could still trigger a melt-up in housing – and the Canadian dollar.

Benchmark interest rates, %

Nvidia Earnings Top Estimates, Markets Surge
Fed Worried About Cutting Too Soon
Markets Mark Time Into Fed Minutes, Nvidia Earnings
AUD recovery continues
Canadian Inflation Decelerates Sharply in January
Dollar Steadies As Rate Cut Consensus Falters