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Weekly Chartbook, January 22

US growth and rate expectations keep rising.

Consensus 2024 gross domestic product growth forecasts, %

The greenback could pop on a Trump victory in New Hampshire.

1-year implied option volatility, at-the-money, 21-day moving average

ECB policymakers will likely punt rate cuts to June.

M3 Money Supply, Adjusted Loans to Households, Adjusted Loans to Non-Financial Corporations, 12-month % change, NSA

Inflation might impact March rate cut odds, moving the dollar.

Implied likelihood of a March rate cut v. exchange rates

Markets have pulled easing expectations back, but the Bank of Canada setup remains dovish. 

Overnight Index Swap-implied change in policy rate, %

Last year’s easing in financial conditions could still trigger a melt-up in housing – and the Canadian dollar.

Benchmark interest rates, %

Currency Markets Brace for Event Risk-Laden Week
Inflation & politics this weeks focus
Dollar Steadies Ahead of Equity Market 'Triple Witching'
AUD cross-currents
Central Bank Easing Hints Boost Risk Appetite
AUD outperformance continues