US growth and rate expectations keep rising.
Consensus 2024 gross domestic product growth forecasts, %
The greenback could pop on a Trump victory in New Hampshire.
1-year implied option volatility, at-the-money, 21-day moving average
ECB policymakers will likely punt rate cuts to June.
M3 Money Supply, Adjusted Loans to Households, Adjusted Loans to Non-Financial Corporations, 12-month % change, NSA
Inflation might impact March rate cut odds, moving the dollar.
Implied likelihood of a March rate cut v. exchange rates
Markets have pulled easing expectations back, but the Bank of Canada setup remains dovish.
Overnight Index Swap-implied change in policy rate, %
Last year’s easing in financial conditions could still trigger a melt-up in housing – and the Canadian dollar.
Benchmark interest rates, %