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USD

Inflation surprises to upside, weighing on risk sentiment

US consumer inflation accelerated more than expected last month, helping lift market expectations for at least one more move in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 3.7 percent in September from the same period last year, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was slightly hotter than consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release – which were set at 3.6 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.  A rise in housing costs contributed more than half the...

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Price action slows into US inflation print

Good morning. The dollar and long-term Treasury yields are holding steady, equity futures are pushing upward, and the Canadian dollar is inching forward. We see four primary factors driving currencies ahead of the North American open: Relative interest rate differentials are moving against the dollar after yesterday’s Federal Reserve minutes showed officials turning wary on raising rates too much. According to the record of the September policy meeting, “Participants generally judged that, with the stance of monetary policy in restrictive territory, risks to the achievement of the committee’s goals had become more two-sided,” with “all participants” agreed on the need...

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US inflation in focus

• Mixed signals. Markets brushed off the hotter than expected headline US PPI, with the minutes of the last policy meeting reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance.• USD volatility. Long-end US bond yields continue to fall as markets pare back further US Fed rate hike bets. The USD is near the bottom of its October range.• AUD holding. AUD whipped around a little overnight, but on net it is still tracking above ~$0.64 (~2% above recent lows). US inflation data released tonight. Markets were generally subdued overnight. The modest knee-jerk strength in the USD, lift in bond yields, and softness in...

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A shift in the Fed’s tone?

• Positive tone. Cautious rhetoric from Fed officials is weighing on bond yields & the USD, & boosting risk sentiment despite the Middle East conflict.• AUD ticking up. The downshift in the USD & reports China is considering a new round of stimulus is helping the AUD. The RBA’s Kent speaks today.• US data. US PPI inflation released tonight, as are the minutes of the last Fed policy meeting. The important US CPI report is due tomorrow night. Risk sentiment has remained positive with markets taking a somewhat sanguine view about the implications of the Middle East events. Oil prices...

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Markets rebound on dovish Fedspeak

Risk appetite is improving after a flock of Federal Reserve officials executed what looked a lot like a communications pivot yesterday, shifting away from the higher-for-longer message that dominated rhetoric for months. Speaking at an economics conference, the Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan suggested that a rise in the bond term premium – the yield difference demanded by investors for taking long-term risk – “could do some of the work of cooling the economy for us, leaving less need for additional monetary tightening”, and her colleague Vice Chair Jefferson said “We are in a sensitive period of risk management, where we...

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