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USD

12 Feb 2024

Will US inflation slow further?

• Quiet start. Subdued markets with modest moves in equities, bond yields, & the major currencies. Firmer metals prices help the AUD a little.• US inflation. January US CPI due tonight. Leading indicators point to US inflation continuing to slow. Will this see the USD lose ground?• AUD crosses. Pairs like AUD/GBP, AUD/EUR & AUD/NZD look to be trading too low compared to levels implied by yield differentials and/or other fundamentals. It has been a quiet start to the week, unsurprising given the limited news flow and with several Asian markets closed for the Lunar New Year. In contrast to...

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11 Feb 2024

US inflation & AU jobs in focus

• Positive tone. The lack of meaningful revisions to the US CPI seasonal factors supported sentiment. US equities hit another record. The AUD edged up.• US focus. US CPI & retail sales this week. Inflation projected to slow with headline CPI set to slip below 3%pa. This may take some of the heat out of the USD.• Event radar. AU jobs report released Thursday with employment forecast to rebound. RBNZ Gov. Orr speaks. UK GDP & CPI also due this week. An upbeat tone across markets on Friday with participants and Federal Reserve policymakers breathing a sigh of relief that...

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09 Feb 2024

US Inflation Revisions Are Damp Squib, Canadian Jobs Beat

Revisions to seasonal adjustments used in the US consumer price index helped push bond yields lower and boost equity prices this morning. The annualized change in headline inflation over the last six months of 2024 was reduced by 0.2 percent, while core price growth remained unchanged. This combination should leave monetary policymakers unmoved, but will also alleviate hedging requirements among market participants who had feared a repeat of early-2023’s revisions.  All-items consumer price index, monthly % change The Canadian economy generated more jobs than anticipated in January, but wage growth slowed sharply, helping firm market expectations for an imminent pivot...

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09 Feb 2024

Markets Tread Water Into Inflation Revisions 

Currency market participants are keeping their powder dry ahead of today’s US consumer price index revisions. The dollar is steady, Treasury yields are slightly higher, and equity futures are setting up for an incrementally-stronger open after the S&P 500 index hit a record high in yesterday’s session, briefly broaching the 5,000 mark. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ annual seasonal revisions are seen nudging measured consumer price index inflation rates up slightly in the latter half of 2023, but markets are wary of the potential for a bigger move. Many investors are still suffering post-traumatic stress disorder after last February’s procedure...

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08 Feb 2024

Central bankers continue to push back

• Mixed markets. Bond yields a bit higher as ECB & Fed officials continue to push back on near-term rate cut bets. USD firmer against JPY & AUD.• RBA speak. Governor Bullock testifies to parliament today. A repeat of this week’s rhetoric expected. This may give the AUD some intra-day support.• US CPI revisions. Revisions to seasonal factors for the US inflation data released tonight. This caused a stir across markets last year. Will it happen again? A mixed performance across asset classes in what was generally another quiet night when it comes to market news flow. Central bankers hit...

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