SGD

• Positive vibes. No new news on the banking front has supported risk sentiment. Bond yields have moved higher, with oil & base metal prices firmer.• Softer USD. Despite the upswing in US yields the USD has drifted lower. AUD & NZD have been boosted by the more positive risk appetite.• AU data pulse. Retail sales were sluggish. CPI indicator for February due today. A larger pull-back in annual growth could open the door to a RBA pause next week. Mixed fortunes across markets overnight, although there has been a relative sense of calm with no new news regarding the...

• Improved sentiment. Banking concerns have eased, at least temporarily. Equities a little higher, while a shift in expectations has pushed up bond yields.• Stable USD. Positive sentiment has weighed on the JPY, while stronger German data and hawkish ECB and BoE rhetoric boosted EUR and GBP.• AUD cross-check. AUD under pressure on the crosses. AU retail sales released today. The data will shape the RBA’s near-term interest rate thinking. Banking sector induced volatility continued overnight, although in a change from the recent trend sentiment was more positive with confidence about the resilience of the system improving. Reports that US...

• Mixed signals. The divergence across markets continues. US equities are holding up, while bonds continues to price in a recession.• Fed cycles. Bond markets have factored in the next Fed easing cycle. But compared to history and given the US’ inflation problem this looks to aggressive.• AUD crosses. AUD/USD remains range bound. But we expect the slowdown in global/domestic growth to see the AUD continue to underperform on the crosses. Markets continue to digest yesterday’s US Fed announcement. The ongoing divergence across asset classes continues to highlight the more challenging economic environment we are in, with uncertainty about how...

• Another Fed hike. Inflation trumps banking concerns with the Fed delivering another 25bp rate hike. Though its forward guidance was watered down.• Mixed reaction. Volatility around the announcements, but in the end US equities and bond yields fell with the more challenging outlook hitting home.• AUD underperforms. AUD/USD was on net little changed, but the AUD underperformed on the crosses as global growth risks intensify. The US Fed announcement and Chair Powell’s press conference was the focus overnight, and as is usually the case there was some intra-day volatility across different markets as participants digested the range of comments...