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SGD

13 Apr 2023

MAS assuming the brace position

At its 14 April policy review, the Monetary Authority of Singapore surprised markets by maintaining “the prevailing rate of appreciation” of the SGD NEER. The MAS also held the width and center of the currency band steady. This reflected the MAS’ relatively more downbeat view of global and domestic growth, and expectations inflation will slow materially over 2023 (see below for more details). In the words of the MAS, given the “intensifying risks” to growth and unfolding turn in inflation, it judges the current SGD NEER appreciation path “is sufficiently tight and appropriate for securing medium-term price stability”. As the...

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13 Apr 2023

USD downturn

• USD lower. Weaker US jobless claims and PPI data has reinforced thinking the US Fed is nearing the end of its hiking phase. This has weighed on the USD.• AUD rebound. The weaker USD, positive risk sentiment, and repricing in RBA rate hike expectations following the stronger labour force report have boosted the AUD.• US retail sales in focus. US retail sales are released tonight. Leading indicators point to a softer result. A positive night for risk sentiment, with softer US data supporting expectations the US Fed could be nearing the end of its rate hiking phase. Equities were...

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12 Apr 2023

US Inflation: something for everyone

• US CPI. Headline inflation slowed a bit more than expected, but core inflation remains high. The conflicting signals generated intra-day volatility.• Softer USD. The USD lost some ground. But will it last? Sticky US core inflation points to another Fed rate hike. Rate cut pricing for later this year looks misplaced.• AUD mixed. AUD focus today will be on the Australian labour market data. Reopened borders mean the hurdle to keep unemployment steady has risen. The latest read on US CPI inflation was the focus overnight. There was something for everyone in the data, and this generated divergence across...

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11 Apr 2023

US CPI in focus

• Calm markets. Focus is on tonight’s US CPI. Headline inflation should mechanically slow, but core inflation could remain high. This can support the case for further tightening by the US Fed.• AUD mixed. AUD slightly higher against the USD, but remains under pressure against EUR and GBP as monetary policy outlooks diverge.• NZD underperformer. Despite last week’s larger RBNZ rate hike, NZD has fallen back. Markets are starting to factor in a RBNZ ‘policy mistake’. Markets were relatively calm overnight, with tonight’s US CPI in focus (10:30pm AEST). The US S&P500 ended the day flat, with the tech-focused NASDAQ...

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10 Apr 2023

USD bouncing back

• Solid US labour report. The March US labour market data showed that while momentum is slowing, conditions are still tight. US unemployment is 3.5%.• USD rebound. The US data bolstered expectations the Fed will hike rates again in May. This has boosted the USD. US CPI inflation released this week.• AUD lower. The shift in relative interest rate expectations in favour of the US has weighed on the AUD. Australian labour market data due on Thursday. The US economic data continued to roll in over the Easter Holidays. On Friday the important US labour market report was released. While...

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