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SGD

04 May 2023

US banking issues & another ECB hike

• US banks. Regional bank issues remain in focus. This has dampened risk sentiment, and is supporting expectations the Fed tightening cycle is over.• ECB hike. ECB raised rates by another 25bps. Tweaks to its guidance were viewed ‘dovish’, but we think this is a misread. President Lagarde was quite ‘hawkish’ with more rate rises expected.• AUD holding. AUD ticked up, with a bounce in AUD/EUR supportive. US non-farm payrolls released tonight. Strong data could question the markets rate cut bets. The re-emerging US regional banking sector concerns remain in focus. The issues continue to dampen risk sentiment, though FX...

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03 May 2023

Conditional US Fed pause doesn’t mean pivot

• Fed in focus. US Fed hikes again, but adjusts guidance. Fed is now data dependent. That doesn’t mean hikes have ended or cuts are coming soon.• Negative risk sentiment. Pushing back of rate cut hopes saw risk sentiment turn negative. US yields lower. USD lost ground against the EUR and JPY.• AUD softer. AUD eased back, with AUD/EUR below pre RBA rate hike levels. ECB expected to hike again tonight. Pressure on AUD/EUR to continue. The US FOMC decision was in focus earlier this morning. As widely expected, the FOMC raised rates another 25bps, taking the target range to...

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02 May 2023

Banking sector worries reemerge

• Risks reemerge. Renewed US banking sector concerns have weighed on risk sentiment. Bond yields, equities & oil prices fell overnight.• AUD volatility. AUD spiked after the ‘surprise’ RBA rate hike, but offshore developments have seen the AUD give back a lot of its gains.• US Fed in focus. Tomorrow’s US Fed meeting is the next major event. Another hike is expected. We think the Fed could push back on expectations rate cuts could start in H2. This could give the USD a boost. The relative calm across markets hasn’t lasted. Risk sentiment soured overnight as concerns about the US...

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01 May 2023

Will the RBA surprise?

• US yields rise. US bond yields jumped up overnight, supporting the USD Index. The US ISM manufacturing survey was a bit better than expected.• RBA in focus. We expect the RBA to keep the cash rate steady at 3.6%, however based on the tight labour market, we believe odds of a move may be a little higher than what markets are pricing.• AUD risks. A RBA ‘surprise’ would see the AUD spike higher, however the slowing global economy and outlook for another US Fed rate hike later this week are ongoing headwinds. Outside of a jump up in US...

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30 Apr 2023

All eyes on the central banks

• Mixed signals. Eurozone data undershoots, while the US Employment Cost Index indicates inflation pressures remain strong. China manufacturing PMI dips back into ‘contractionary’ territory.• Central banks in focus. US Fed and ECB expected to hike rates again later this week. We think there are ‘hawkish’ risks given the inflation pulse.• AUD & the RBA. We are forecasting the RBA to remain on hold once again. Weaker China data and diverging policy trends are AUD headwinds. A positive end to April for risk markets with US equity indices rising by 0.7-0.8% on Friday on the back of solid earnings reports,...

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