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SGD

25 Mar 2024

Waiting game

• Quiet start. Global equities mixed. Bond yields drifted higher. USD a little softer. AUD has clawed back a bit of ground over the past 24hrs.• CNH & JPY. Authorities in China have pushed back on recent CNH weakness. Rhetoric from Japanese officials about JPY weakness has also ramped up.• Data flow. US durable goods orders in focus tonight. Locally, the monthly CPI indicator is due tomorrow & retail sales are released on Thursday. It has been a typically quiet start to the holiday shortened week with limited new news over the past 24hrs. Most of the major global equity...

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19 Mar 2024

Will the Fed’s ‘dot plot’ change?

• Firmer USD. US equities higher & bond yields a little lower. A higher USD/JPY has boosted the USD. AUD & NZD have shed some more ground.• BoJ & RBA. BoJ hiked rates for the first time since 2007. But markets were underwhelmed. RBA tweaked its forward guidance to more ‘neutral’ language.• US Fed. Focus tomorrow morning will be on the US Fed’s forecasts & guidance. No change to 2024 projections could disappoint ‘hawkish’ expectations. Following a bit of volatility in yesterday’s Asian session after the Bank of Japan changes (and RBA meeting) asset markets were more subdued overnight as...

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14 Mar 2024

US stagflation vibes

• Stagflation worries. US retail sales underwhelm while stronger producer prices raised concerns about the inflation outlook. US yields rose. USD a bit firmer.• AUD slips. Higher US yields exerted pressure on the AUD. But the intra-day swing was below average. Focus today will be on Japanese wage outcomes.• Upcoming events. BoJ, RBA, US Fed, & BoE meet next week. Will the BoJ finally move? On top of that the China activity data & AU jobs report are due. A few wobbles across risk markets overnight as “stagflation vibes” from the latest US retail sales and Producer Price inflation data...

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12 Mar 2024

Hotter US CPI taken in stride

• US CPI. US inflation slightly higher than expected. But markets were more prepared. Equities rose, & while bond yields ticked up, USD strength was minimal.• Details matter. Some of the US CPI strength likely to reverse. US Fed to remain cautious about rate cuts near-term, but that is already priced into markets.• AUD & JPY. AUD dipped a touch, & USD/JPY rose. Japan’s Rengo wage outcomes will impact BoJ expectations, USD/JPY & the broader USD. Market focus was on the latest US CPI inflation data overnight. US headline and core (i.e. ex food and energy) rose 0.4% in February...

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11 Mar 2024

Another US CPI jolt looming?

• Mixed markets. Equities eased a little while bond yields nudged up overnight. Currencies were well contained. AUD consolidated near ~$0.6610.• US CPI. US inflation data in focus tonight. Will the February US CPI data confirm or disprove the January reading as an anomaly?• Expectations matter. Analysts look to be factoring in a greater chance of an upside surprise. This suggests a bigger market reaction could be to a lower print. Markets have had a fairly subdued start to the new week with attention on tonight’s US CPI inflation data (11:30pm AEDT). Global sharemarkets have been mixed. The US S&P500...

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