NZD

• Softer tone. Equities lost some ground & bond yields dipped back overnight. Oil still on the backfoot & the USD remains under pressure.• AUD upswing. AUD’s positive run continued. AUD above ~$0.66 for the first time since early-August. But following its rapid rise it may face some local hurdles.• Local data. AU retail sales due today & monthly CPI released tomorrow. Did cash conscious households hold back their spending for the ‘Black Friday’ sales? It has been a rather subdued start to the week. As our chart shows, the VIX Index (the volatility measure for the S&P500) is at...

• Trends extend. European equities ticked up, bond yields rose. Oil gave back ground. Iron ore elevated. AUD at the top of its multi-month range.• Weaker USD. USD remains under pressure. USD index is near where it started the year. Factors that propelled the USD higher have changed course.• Event radar. Locally, retail sales & monthly CPI are due. Offshore, US PCE deflator, manufacturing ISM, China PMIs & Eurozone inflation are released. It was a fairly quiet end to last week across markets with the US having a holiday shortened session on Friday following the Thanksgiving break. European equities ticked...

• Mixed markets. Equities ticked up with the S&P500 enjoying its 8th straight gain. USD index consolidated, but commodity currencies like the AUD slipped back.• Bonds & oil. The slide in long-end bond yields & oil continued. US 10yr yields are now ~50bps below the late-October peak. Oil is at a multi-month low.• AUD stumble. AUD has given back ~1/2 its recent rebound. Domestic wage & jobs data released next week could see AU rate expectations rebound. With not too much economic news most markets have consolidated over the past day. Equities have generally ticked up with the major European...

• US jobs. A softer US jobs report added to the downward pressure on US yields & the USD. Equities continue to bounce back. AUD at its highest since late-August.• RBA hike? Attention will be on tomorrow’s RBA decision. Most analysts are expecting a rate rise, but markets are less sure (~60% chance is priced in).• AUD vol. Market pricing points to AUD volatility post the RBA, with a ‘surprise’ no change likely to generate a larger knee-jerk AUD reaction, in our view. Markets were fixated on the latest US jobs report on Friday night. The weaker than predicted figures...