NZD

• Market relief. Softer US ADP employment data & a lower oil price weighed on bond yields. US equities rose & the USD drifted back slightly.• AUD consolidates. The AUD has clawed back a little ground. But it remains at low levels. Since 2015 the AUD has only traded sub ~$0.63 ~1% of the time.• US data. US payrolls is the next major event (Friday AEDT). Given where things are tracking a larger (more negative) USD reaction could occur if the data disappoints. A break from the recent trend overnight with bond yields lower, equities higher, and the USD a...

• US yields higher. Positive US job openings pushed US yields higher. This helped the USD & weighed on risk sentiment. AUD slipped below ~$0.63.• USD/JPY volatility. After moving above ~150 USD/JPY tumbled. FX intervention wasn’t confirmed. The moves helped the USD stabilise.• RBA & RBNZ. No change from the RBA yesterday. RBNZ meets today with rates expected to be held steady. AUD/NZD is near levels last traded in late-May. Familiar themes and trends were on show again overnight. A stronger US JOLTS (i.e. job openings) report generated another jump up in bond yields and some further USD strength which...

• Bond yields. Long-end yields jumped up overnight. US 10yr around its highest since Q4 ’07. This & soft Eurozone growth supported the USD. EUR sub 1.06.• Mixed messages. AUD/USD lost a little ground yesterday, but AUD outperformed its European peers. Positioning metrics appear quite ‘net short’ AUD.• AUD events. Monthly AU CPI indicator due tomorrow & retail sales released on Thursday. Various factors point to a re-acceleration in inflation. After easing slightly at the end of last week bond yields jumped back up overnight, led by moves at the long-end of the curve. German and UK 10yr yields rose...