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NZD

08 Jan 2024

Hold the line

• FX consolidation. Quiet start to the week across FX. USD consolidated with AUD treading water. US CPI the major focal point this week (released Fri AEDT).• Mixed markets. A tech sector rally boosted US equities. Oil prices fell on softer demand signals, & bond yields lost some ground.• AU data. November retail sales due today. Black Friday sales expected to have boosted spending. Tomorrow the monthly CPI indicator is released. It has been a quiet start to the week for FX markets with the major currencies range bound over the past 24hrs. The USD index has held onto its...

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14 Dec 2023

USD downturn deepens

• Central banks. ECB & BoE kept rates steady but tried to push back on policy easing expectations. This helped EUR & GBP with the USD still under pressure.• Fed impacts. The US Fed’s dovish turn has continued to reverberate across markets. Bond yields fell again & risk sentiment remains positive.• AU jobs. Employment exceeded forecasts & while unemployment ticked up it remains low. China data batch due today. This can impact the AUD. Following yesterdays ‘dovish’ pivot by the US Fed and signals that rate cuts will probably be the next step, central banks remained in focus overnight. As...

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13 Dec 2023

Fed pivot jolts markets

• US Fed. A ‘dovish’ pivot by the Fed. Comments & updated forecasts point to the next step being policy easing, with several cuts projected in 2024.• Market repricing. US bond yields tumbled as markets adjusted their thinking. This weighed on the USD & propelled the AUD & risk markets higher.• AU jobs. After a strong Oct., there are risks to the Nov. data. This may exert short-term pressure on the AUD, but it shouldn’t change the bigger USD driven trend. All eyes were on the US Fed meeting and press conference this morning and the ‘dovish’ tilt we were...

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10 Dec 2023

US Fed in focus this week

• US jobs. Payrolls were a bit higher than forecast & US unemployment dipped. US equities & yields rose giving the USD some support.• FX moves. The USD rebound was modest. Most of the major pairs, including the AUD, only slipped back to where they were tracking the day earlier.• Event radar. Locally, jobs data is due. Offshore, the US Fed, ECB & BoE meet. On top of that US CPI & retail sales are released, as is the China data batch. Positive sentiment across financial markets continued into the end of last week. A better-than-expected US labour market report...

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04 Dec 2023

RBA in focus today

• Partial reversal. US bond yields & the USD rebounded, while US equities dipped. There was no major economic news overnight.• AUD pull-back. Ahead of today’s RBA decision the AUD has lost ground. No change in rates is anticipated with focus on the RBA’s forward guidance.• US jobs. There is a slew of US jobs data out the next few days that will test expectations looking for no further Fed hikes & for cuts to start in May. Short term gyrations continued overnight with US bond yields and the USD rebounding, while across equities the S&P500 (-0.5%) and tech-focused NASDAQ...

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