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NZD

14 Jun 2023

Fed’s ‘hawkish’ skip

• US Fed. Rates kept on hold, but the Fed’s message was ‘hawkish’. Fed is forecasting another ~50bps of hikes this year. Market pricing looks too low.• Intra-day volatility. Markets whipped around by the Fed decision. US retail sales & jobless claims tonight. Data could influence Fed expectations & the USD.• AUD events. Australian labour force & China activity data released today. ECB policy meeting is tonight with another 25bp rate hike expected. Markets whipped around overnight, with the US Fed policy decision and Chair Powell’s press conference in focus. As was broadly expected, after hiking interest rates aggressively over...

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12 Jun 2023

An action packed week ahead

• Positive vibes. Equities higher. The risk backdrop & repricing in RBA expectations has pushed the AUD towards the top of its multi-month range.• Inflation focus. US CPI due tonight. Base-effects should drag down annual headline inflation. But will core inflation hold up and rattle market nerves?• Event risk. There are several events on Thursday with the US FOMC decision, AU jobs report, China data batch, ECB meeting, and US retail sales on the schedule. A mixed performance across markets overnight, though the underlying tone was generally positive at the start of an action-packed week. US and European equities rose,...

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07 Jun 2023

Canaries in the central bank coal mine

• BoC hike. The ‘surprise’ move by the BoC has rattled markets. Bond yields have risen as markets adjust interest rate expectations.• AUD softer. AUD has given back a little ground. The shift in offshore pricing counteracts the change in RBA thinking. Q1 GDP was also weak.• Central banks. The US Fed, ECB & BoJ meet next week. Inflation is a hard nut to crack. Further upward adjustment in rates could weigh on risk sentiment. Markets came back to life overnight. Expectations that central banks have more work to do to get on top of high services/core inflation are growing....

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06 Jun 2023

RBA hammer blow

• Quiet night. Equities a little higher. Bond yields consolidated. The USD index edged up slightly. AUD held onto its post RBA gains.• RBA hike. Cash rate now 4.1% with inflation concerns stepping up. We expect another hike. FX is a relative game. AUD is also influenced by global trends.• AUD events. RBA Governor Lowe speaks today & Q1 AU GDP is released. China trade data is also due. Bank of Canada meets tonight. An uneventful night for markets with limited news flow and no major economic releases. European and US equities ticked up. The US S&P500 rose by ~0.2%,...

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06 Jun 2023

RBA: hiking until it hurts

In what we think was a finely balance decision, at least in terms of the timing not the direction, the RBA raised the cash rate by another 25bps to 4.1% at today’s meeting. This takes the cumulative tightening delivered since things started in May 2022 to 400bps, by far the most abrupt RBA rate hiking cycle since at least the early 1980s. The RBA reiterated that while inflation has passed its peak, at ~7%pa it “is still too high and it will be some time yet before it is back in the target range”. And in the RBA’s assessment, “recent...

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